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These ratings are posted by site users; this content is not intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com

Average returns on JJR's ratings:

Rating Avg. Return Annualized Key:
- : rated buy, stock went down
+ : rated sell, stock went up
+/- : rated hold
+ : rated buy, stock went up
- : rated sell, stock went down
strong buy +119.82%(over an avg. of 682.00 days) +64.13%
hold -18.93%(over an avg. of 6731.00 days) -1.03%
sell -88.85%(over an avg. of 6731.00 days) -4.82%


Jump to rating for: ACAS   BSDM  

NOTE: areas highlighted in blue indicate that this user is sharing the highlighted information with their private group ONLY
-- ACAS --
ACAS Nov. 22 2002, 1:35 PM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 23 2005, 10:14 AM ET
by JJR (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (11/22/2002): 20.23
Price near end of rating (10/24/2005): 37.03
Price change: +16.80
Dividends collected: 8.65

Gain/Loss over 1065 days: +25.45 +125.80% Annualized Gain/Loss: +43.11%
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ACAS Oct. 23 2005, 10:14 AM ET by JJR (view profile) rating: Hold
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (10/24/2005): 37.03
Recent price (01/03/2017): 17.99
Price change: -19.04
Dividends collected: 12.03

Gain/Loss over 6731 days: -7.01 -18.93% Annualized Gain/Loss: -1.03%
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-- BSDM --
BSDM Dec. 27 2004, 09:08 AM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 23 2005, 10:20 AM ET
by JJR (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
BSDM performance:
Price near date of rating (12/27/2004): 2.60
Price near end of rating (10/24/2005): 5.56

Gain/Loss over 299 days: +2.96 +113.85% Annualized Gain/Loss: +138.98%
Description:


BSDM develops, manufactures, markets and services systems that deliver focused
electromagnetic energy for use in a variety of medical therapies and applications. Their
objective is to commercialize their developed products and further expand the
application of their technology into new markets. They pioneered the use of microwave
thermal therapy for the treatment of the symptoms associated with enlarged prostate,
and are responsible for much of the technology that has created a substantial medical
industry using that therapy. Their longest-term development has been the
application of focused electromagnetic energy for the treatment of cancer. It's been shown in
many clinical trials that both radiation and chemotherapy are more effective when
used in conjunction with hyperthermia. The company also believes that their technology
has wide application for numerous other medical purposes -- everything from sleep
apnea to hemorrhoids!


While some of their statements for their hyperthermia technology may sound more
than a little promotional, especially for a BB stock that's been around for over 2
decades losing money, closer examination of the business reveals they may be onto
something. Their foray into treating enlarged prostate symptoms with a version of their
HT technology has yielded nice dividends. This perennially cash-poor company did
not have the wherewithal to go it alone in this area, so they decided to spin out this
division in late '97 and finance it with private equity capital. The resulting
company, TherMatrx, was sold this year to publicly traded AMMD. After several rounds
of financing, BSDM's TherMatrx equity ownership was diluted to
25%.



I have no idea how successful BSDM will be in selling their HT cancer treatment
machines. They received FDA-approval late this year for their BSD-500 machine which
treats surface and sub-surface tumors, so obviously the technology has shown some
efficacy in treating cancer patients. The big development will come, however, when
they receive FDA-approval for their top of the line product -- the BSD-2000, which
treats deep tumors anywhere in the body. The Phase III trials have been completed and
they will start the FDA application process in Q1 '05 (usually takes about a year).
The BSD-2000 has been used in clinical applications in Europe (mostly Germany) and
the results have been quite good to date. Siemens has worked with them and the
machine with all the bells and whistles (ASP over $1M) is equipped with 3D-MRI
functionality.



They also just shipped their first BSD-2000 to China, where the Chinese population
is more amenable to fighting cancer with heat, as there is widespread use of the
technology with over 1500 hyperthermia systems in use in that country. These are,
however, much less sophisticated than the American-made product BSDM just shipped off.
The first Chinese BSD-2000 will also be used in a hospital setting in order to
obtain regulatory approval for the BSD-2000 from the Chinese government. Unlike the US,
in China regulatory approval normally can be accomplished over several months of
testing and review.





OK, nobody on this board is going to get excited about a company with virtually no
sales and an uncertain technology, especially if it's been around for years and has
little to show for it. In the past, the technology could not deliver effective
heating of all sites (think microwave ovens here), particularly the deeper ones.
Research and implementation have also been hampered by lack of noninvasive temperature
measuring instruments. In addition, clinical applications apart from radiation have
not been explored adequately. And hyperthermia is a procedure that consumes
significant amount of time and manpower compared with radiotherapy or chemotherapy. So until
recently, it was not possible to write a thermal prescription, but that obstacle has
been overcome. Noninvasive thermometry is being developed, as the MRI's show that
there is now virtually no variance in the fever-like temperature in the targeted
tumor. Also the use of computer modeling has made tremendous strides in the past decade
and helps with directing and controlling the heat. These new developments raise the
expectations that hyperthermia will likely lead to improved loco-regional control of
tumors, extending even to deep seated ones.



The company's valuation, however, makes the technology an even more interesting
call option for investors. Historically, the company has never burned much cash, and
doesn't plan on burning more than $2M/annually as they ramp up marketing to sell
their first FDA-approved HT cancer treatment product. AMMD (the purchaser) and BSDM
(the seller) have estimated that the sale price of TherMatrx will be around $160M.
It's an unknown amount at this time because it was structured as an earnount of 4x
sales for the period encompassing the last 2 quarters of this year and all 4 quarters
of next year. Investors can monitor TherMatrx sales quarterly, which are the same
as BSDM's portion of the sale price (i.e., 4x sale price * 25% ownership), by
listening to the AMMD conference calls. On their last call, AMMD seemed particularly
upbeat about their prospects of putting these boxes in urologists' offices and planned
on significantly increasing their sales team. Interestingly, the faster these $10K
boxes go in doc's offices, the more BSDM stands to make. Over 85% of the TherMatrx
sale price come from disposable catheters (the razor blade) not the big box medical
equipment (the razor). Every quarter, we want to see more boxes placed than the
prior quarter. Even though, this increases AMMD's purchase price, it's small potatoes
compared to the annuity-like stream of income these disposable catheters will
produce. As both CEO's have stated, "he who gets his box in the doctor's office first,
wins." AMMD has priced them at slightly lower levels than the competition.



BSDM's share of the sale will likely be somewhere around $40M (capped at $62.5M),
and with a fully diluted sharecount of 21M shares and a current share price of
$2.02/share, we aren't paying much for some good things happening in the future. It's
important to note that all of BSDM's eggs are not in the cancer treatment basket, as
they have dozens of uses for their technology in other areas. It's likely they would
use the same successful approach as they did with TherMatrx, but it's also likely
they would fund and maintain a larger equity position in any attractive spin-off.





The insiders own very close to half of this company (including their options) and
have a vested interest in the stock doing well. One of Mr. Mead's stated goals is
to move onto Nasdaq next year. The 3-month average volume of the stock has moved up
to 22K a day and the balance sheet is the strongest it's ever been, so Nasdaq
listing shouldn't be a problem in '05 (I think price will take care of itself as investors
will begin to take notice of net cash levels and P/E ratios). The company had no
debt and $9.7M in cash at fiscal year end (.46/share). They also reported .41 EPS
because they received a $9M partial payment on the TherMatrx sale. Next fiscal year
and the following, their fully diluted earnings per share should exceed this year's
EPS, as they get the balance of the earnout. (Fiscal year ends Aug 31, so next
year's earnout will be split between the next 2 fiscal years). It's likely that today's
market cap will be comprised of 3/4 cash by the end of the earnout period and the
final cash payment received in Q1 06.





Here's a Wall Street Transcript interview with CEO, Hyrum Mead...and I'll follow
up in the thread with my Q&A notes with the CEO.

http://www.twst.com/ceos.htm










Catalyst:


(1) Increased sales. Recently received FDA-approval for first HT cancer treatment
system, the BSD-500.

(2) China's regulatory approval of their machines

(3) Quarterly recognition by investors that TherMatrx earnout is real

(4) NASDAQ-listing

(5) JV announcements of technology in non-cancerous treatment applications

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Currently: 
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BSDM Oct. 23 2005, 10:20 AM ET by JJR (view profile) rating: Sell
BSDM performance:
Price near date of rating (10/24/2005): 5.56
Recent price (02/24/2015): 0.62

Gain/Loss over 6731 days: -4.94 -88.85% Annualized Gain/Loss: -4.82%
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