--
ACAS
--
|
|
ACAS |
Dec. 12 2002, 3:49 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:18 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
ACAS |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:18 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Sell |
|
ACAS performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 27.70
Recent price (01/03/2017): 17.99
Price change: -9.71
Dividends collected: 18.64
Gain/Loss over 7885 days: +8.93 +32.24%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.49%
|
July '03 Update: If JJR is out of it, I should be too (lol). Seriousley, rising rates can't help from here forward. Not sure if this is a short, but easy money has been made and if things continue positively, less risk in basic thrifts. Keep ACAS in your mind when the cycle goes rotten again, but for now, time to dump the leveraged plays.
______________________________________________________
I'm venturing a bit off the reservation here because my knowledge of ACAS is not as in-depth as I would like. But I am familiar with their method of operations, and having seen these kinds of leveraged vehicles implode in the past, I certainly see why Herb would put out the STOP sign.
At the same time, guys I follow and respect like Hi and JJR think very highly of the stock.
What to do? Well, if it was early in the cycle -- which is when you want to own a stock like ACAS with maximum dividend streams and cap appreciation still to come -- I'd say BUY. But this late in the cycle, well, they say that those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it. But ACAS has solid management and I think they are less likely to suffer the problems others had once rates turn up and/or housing turns down.
I think that with interest rates unlikely to spike up big, and with the Fed on HOLD, I think I feel comfortable staying away from the SELL recommendation and immitating the Fed.
HOLD
Was this user's rating of 'ACAS' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
1
said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
AMFH
--
|
|
AMFH |
Nov. 30 2002, 01:14 AM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
FPTB
--
|
|
FPTB |
Dec. 29 2002, 8:10 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
FTCG
--
|
|
FTCG |
Jul. 14 2003, 10:56 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 14 2003, 10:56 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Sell |
|
FTCG performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/14/2003): 51.30
Price near end of rating (07/14/2003): 51.30
Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
|
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
FTCG |
Jul. 14 2003, 10:56 PM ET Rating changed on Oct. 28 2003, 11:57 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Sell |
|
FTCG performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/14/2003): 51.30
Price near end of rating (10/28/2003): 60.14
Price change: +8.84
Dividends collected: 0.19
Gain/Loss over 106 days: +9.03 +17.60%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +60.60%
|
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
FTCG |
Oct. 28 2003, 11:57 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
FTCG performance: |
Price near date of rating (10/28/2003): 60.14
Recent price (10/31/2003): 63.35
Gain/Loss over 7783 days: +3.21 +5.34%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.25%
|
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
GPT
--
|
|
GPT |
Nov. 21 2002, 1:05 PM ET Rating changed on Jan. 24 2003, 09:48 AM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
GPT |
Jan. 24 2003, 09:48 AM ET Rating changed on Jan. 24 2003, 09:49 AM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
GPT performance: |
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
|
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and TBV
I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
___________________________________________
The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.
I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).
Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.
Was this user's rating of 'GPT' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
2
said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
GPT |
Jan. 24 2003, 09:49 AM ET Rating changed on Jan. 24 2003, 3:13 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
GPT performance: |
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
|
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.
I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
___________________________________________
The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.
I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).
Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.
Was this user's rating of 'GPT' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
2
said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
GPT |
Jan. 24 2003, 3:13 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:22 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
GPT performance: |
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Gain/Loss over 174 days: 0.00 0.00%
Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
|
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.
I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
___________________________________________
The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.
I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).
Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.
Was this user's rating of 'GPT' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
2
said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
GPT |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:22 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:23 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
GPT performance: |
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
|
You could say they missed by a penny, but estimates had been rising for weeks and months leading up to the quarter so that would be harsh. Pipeline is solid, company is less affected by refis than others, No-Doc continues to plug along, Alt-A is strong.
2 dividend boosts within 3 months (!) and continued strong buybacks. Stock is splitting, which could be the prelude to an accretive acquisition (Astoria? ICBC? DCOM? FFIC?). This company is a free cash flow machine.
TJ is on the horn saying he's not averse to selling, but wants to buy first and then sell. Either way, stock should move up.
Stock is still too cheap. It sold for 6X earnings in March 2000 and sells for 9X earnings now? Sorry, that can't be what they call a peak multiple.
_________________________________________________________
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.
I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
___________________________________________
The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.
I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).
Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.
Was this user's rating of 'GPT' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
2
said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
GPT |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:23 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
GPT performance: |
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Recent price (10/15/2018): 27.48
Price change: -2.52
Dividends collected: 7.878
Gain/Loss over 7885 days: +5.36 +17.86%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.83%
|
Q2 2003 Update: You could say they missed by a penny, but estimates had been rising for weeks and months leading up to the quarter so that would be harsh. Pipeline is solid, company is less affected by refis than others, No-Doc continues to plug along, Alt-A is strong.
2 dividend boosts within 3 months (!) and continued strong buybacks. Stock is splitting, which could be the prelude to an accretive acquisition (Astoria? ICBC? DCOM? FFIC?). This company is a free cash flow machine.
TJ is on the horn saying he's not averse to selling, but wants to buy first and then sell. Either way, stock should move up.
Stock is still too cheap. It sold for 6X earnings in March 2000 and sells for 9X earnings now? Sorry, that can't be what they call a peak multiple.
_________________________________________________________
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.
I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
___________________________________________
The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.
I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).
Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.
Was this user's rating of 'GPT' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
2
said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
HCBK
--
|
|
HCBK |
Nov. 22 2002, 4:38 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:25 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
HCBK |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:25 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
MO
--
|
|
MO |
Dec. 20 2002, 10:26 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
MO performance: |
Price near date of rating (12/20/2002): 41.12
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Price change: -0.84
Dividends collected: 1.28
Gain/Loss over 209 days: +0.44 +1.07%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.87%
|
7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."
If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.
I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.
I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).
Was this user's rating of 'MO' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
MO |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
MO performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
|
Litigation UpdateIt's pretty apparent that as you go higher in the appelate process, there is less support for idiotic judgements. Hence, a few weeks ago MO got a favorable ruling in the Illinois bond decision, and the stock spurted 25%.
The stock could go back to $35 in a heartbeat -- but it's a chance to buy more super-cheap or just sit back and reinvest that 2%-per-quarter dividend.
Too bad they don't make Laramie cigarettes. Or Morley's.
7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."
If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.
I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.
I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).
Was this user's rating of 'MO' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
MO |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:16 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
MO performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
|
Litigation Update It's pretty apparent that as you go higher in the appelate process, there is less support for idiotic judgements. Hence, a few weeks ago MO got a favorable ruling in the Illinois bond decision, and the stock spurted 25%.
The stock could go back to $35 in a heartbeat -- but it's a chance to buy more super-cheap or just sit back and reinvest that 2%-per-quarter dividend.
Too bad they don't make Laramie cigarettes. Or Morley's.
7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."
If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.
I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.
I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).
Was this user's rating of 'MO' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
MO |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:16 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
MO performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Recent price (02/14/2025): 53.29
Price change: +13.01
Dividends collected: 129.459
Gain/Loss over 7885 days: +142.47 +353.70%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +16.37%
|
Litigation Update: It's pretty apparent that as you go higher in the appelate process, there is less support for idiotic judgements. Hence, a few weeks ago MO got a favorable ruling in the Illinois bond decision, and the stock spurted 25%.
The stock could go back to $35 in a heartbeat -- but it's a chance to buy more super-cheap or just sit back and reinvest that 2%-per-quarter dividend.
Too bad they don't make Laramie cigarettes. Or Morley's.
____________________________________________________________
7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."
If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.
I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.
I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).
Was this user's rating of 'MO' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
NABC
--
|
|
NABC |
Apr. 20 2004, 5:41 PM ET Rating changed on Apr. 20 2004, 5:43 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
NABC |
Apr. 20 2004, 5:43 PM ET Rating changed on Apr. 21 2004, 9:02 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
NABC performance: |
Price near date of rating (04/20/2004): 13.90
Price near end of rating (04/21/2004): 13.85
Gain/Loss over 1 day: -0.05 -0.36%
Annualized Gain/Loss: -131.40%
|
A Connecticut juggernaut in the making, NewAlliance is poised to become a big winner in the lucrative CT banking market. My Plusses and Minuses follow:
Plusses:
(1) BV of $12.50 a share (TBV of $8.00/sh) gives stock some floor during turbulent times.
(2) Lousy efficiency ratio offers cost-savings to flow to earnings down the line.
(3) Large cash hoard and asset-sensitive nature of balance sheet bodes well if rates start to rise.
(4) Mgmt. is diverse, experienced, and well-versed in CT marketplace.
(5) Russell 2000 buying should buoy stock in coming months.
(6) Expect a dividend.
(7) Capital already deployed via SBMC/ANE purchases; no surprises ala PFS likely.
(8) Many "flippers" probably exited stock during first 2 weeks; replay of 3-6 month trading pattersn of BRKL and ICBC substantially reduced barring dramatic downdrafts.
Minuses
(1) Can't sell bank for 5 years (as if important to institutions with 3 month time horizon??)
(2) TBV lower than BV -- result of acquisitions.
(3) No stock buybacks for 11 1/2 months.
(4) Limited dividend potential due to depressed earnings.
(5) Hostile thrift/bank environment with Fed likely to be tightening in coming quarters.
(6) Loss of New Haven Savings Bank name could prevent bank from picking up other bank's PO'd customers from M&A in state.
NewAlliance is certainly a long-term winner. In trying to analyze for the next 6-12 months, I look at the Provident trading history. Adjusting for the fact that the Fed was on hold during that time (though the mortgage market had some turbulent times) and that the overall stock market was rising, I think it's safe to say that if we have a slow-and-steady rising market through the Election that NABC could inch it's way up into the $16.00 range and settle there, with a potential spike to $18.00. Each of these numbers is about 15% lower than PFS for it's range and spike figures; this "haircut" represents my estimation of the less-friendly rate environment, sluggish market, and higher valuation embedded in NABC. Perhaps the discount should be more, or perhaps thrifts have one final fling where NABC matches or even exceeds the performance of PFS and TONE. A middling ground seems a fair compromise and those price targets seem reasonable within a 6-9 month time horizon. I peg fair value for this stock at 110% of book, so I rate it a STRONG BUY at current levels for both short-term speculators and long-term investors. Good Luck!!
Was this user's rating of 'NABC' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
3
said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
NABC |
Apr. 21 2004, 9:02 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
NABC performance: |
Price near date of rating (04/21/2004): 13.85
Recent price (12/13/2004): 14.79
Price change: +0.94
Dividends collected: 0.08
Gain/Loss over 7607 days: +1.02 +7.36%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.35%
|
A Connecticut juggernaut in the making, NewAlliance is poised to become a big winner in the lucrative CT banking market. My Plusses and Minuses follow:
Plusses:
(1) BV of $12.50 a share (TBV of $8.00/sh) gives stock some floor during turbulent times.
(2) Lousy efficiency ratio offers cost-savings to flow to earnings down the line.
(3) Large cash hoard and asset-sensitive nature of balance sheet bodes well if rates start to rise.
(4) Mgmt. is diverse, experienced, and well-versed in CT marketplace.
(5) Russell 2000 buying should buoy stock in coming months.
(6) Expect a dividend.
(7) Capital already deployed via SBMC/ANE purchases; no surprises ala PFS likely.
(8) Many "flippers" probably exited stock during first 2 weeks; replay of 3-6 month trading patterns of BRKL and ICBC substantially reduced barring dramatic downdrafts.
Minuses
(1) Can't sell bank for 5 years (as if important to institutions with 3 month time horizon??)
(2) TBV lower than BV -- result of acquisitions.
(3) No stock buybacks for 11 1/2 months.
(4) Limited dividend potential due to depressed earnings.
(5) Hostile thrift/bank environment with Fed likely to be tightening in coming quarters.
(6) Loss of New Haven Savings Bank name could prevent bank from picking up other bank's PO'd customers from M&A in state.
NewAlliance is certainly a long-term winner. In trying to analyze for the next 6-12 months, I look at the Provident trading history. Adjusting for the fact that the Fed was on hold during that time (though the mortgage market had some turbulent times) and that the overall stock market was rising, I think it's safe to say that if we have a slow-and-steady rising market through the Election that NABC could inch it's way up into the $16.00 range and settle there, with a potential spike to $18.00. Each of these numbers is about 15% lower than PFS for it's range and spike figures; this "haircut" represents my estimation of the less-friendly rate environment, sluggish market, and higher valuation embedded in NABC. Perhaps the discount should be more, or perhaps thrifts have one final fling where NABC matches or even exceeds the performance of PFS and TONE. A middling ground seems a fair compromise and those price targets seem reasonable within a 6-9 month time horizon. I peg fair value for this stock at 110-130% of book, so I rate it a STRONG BUY at current levels for both short-term speculators and long-term investors. Good Luck!!
Was this user's rating of 'NABC' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
3
said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
OCFC
--
|
|
OCFC |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:27 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
PFE
--
|
|
PFE |
Nov. 22 2002, 2:26 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
PFS
--
|
|
PFS |
Dec. 18 2002, 11:17 PM ET Rating changed on Jan. 17 2003, 4:15 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
PFS |
Jan. 17 2003, 4:15 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:11 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
PFS |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:11 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
PFS performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 18.55
Recent price (02/14/2025): 18.65
Price change: +0.10
Dividends collected: 14.13
Gain/Loss over 7885 days: +14.23 +76.71%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +3.55%
|
Q2 Update Provident is basically a supply-and-demand story at this point. To buy it based on short-term or intermediate-term fundamentals is specious. You have to like the story long-term...BUT, there is a case to be made for this stock going higher if bank/thrift stocks hold up. I could see this stock reaching the low-to-mid 20's based strictly on buying flows the next few quarters.
Having qualified my rating, I am going to tepidly hold it as STRONG BUY -- for now. I reserve the right to downgrade at higher prices, unless something comes along to underpin the fundamentals or justify a sudden spurt in tangible book value. Obviousley, improving interest rate conditions, business expansion, a good acquisition, or superb capital managment (dividend boosts quarterly + expedited buybacks) could also allow me to keep the rating as we move higher.
In short, lots has changed in 6 months -- but the rating hasn't. As Ahnold said in T2...."Stick Around....."
POST-IPO COMMENTS I am sticking with the STRONG BUY rating but that's based on a long-term holder. I can't say to aggressively buy the stock at 110-115% of book. You can buy some, but make sure it's capital you are comfortable committing long-term.
The institutions clearly want this stock and that could be one caveat to the upside. If Provident has identified a way to spend it's $600 MM warchest and really boost earnings -- and if the hedgies/funds know this -- then maybe they are willing to pay higher prices for what it will be worth 12-18 months down the road. Let's face it, there aren't too many glitzy alternatives. 1/17/03
____________________________________________________
I'm rating this STRONG BUY based on the IPO price of $10.00 per share. I think the chances of it breaking the IPO price are very slim, UNLESS we go to war with Iraq or something like that breaks (in which case, I would hope Sandler would postpone the IPO and not pull a Sound Federal).
I would buy the stock up to $15 for LONG TERM BUYERS but I need to see a quarter or two of earnings as well as where the thrift cycle goes to judge if this is a buy for the intermeidate term. The housing market rarely tanks during a presidential year so maybe the thrift cycle extends out. If so, this could be a great buy into 2005.
Lot's of if's and hedges here, I know. I will re-evaluate once public trading begins.
Was this user's rating of 'PFS' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
1
said yes (of 2 -- 50.00%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
PRTR
--
|
|
PRTR |
Dec. 2 2002, 7:42 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
RSLN
--
|
|
RSLN |
Nov. 21 2002, 2:35 PM ET Rating changed on Apr. 10 2003, 5:24 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
RSLN |
Apr. 10 2003, 5:24 PM ET Rating changed on Apr. 10 2003, 5:25 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Sell |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
RSLN |
Apr. 10 2003, 5:25 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:29 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Sell |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
RSLN |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:29 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Buy |
|
RSLN performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 23.50
Recent price (10/31/2003): 27.05
Price change: +3.55
Dividends collected: 0.155
Gain/Loss over 7885 days: +3.71 +15.77%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.73%
|
July 2003 Update: Now you know why I never panned out as a hedge fund manager.
Lots of people say they're shocked when they're wrong, but this is really my most shocking short-term miss in thriftland since I started in 1993. I really didn't see this one coming. It's like Mariano Rivera blowing Game 7 in 2001...theoretically possible, but you never gave it good odds. Kudos to Mancino and the gang. I never though they'd get the consolidation wave going...guess they outsmarted alot of people. Including me.
I strongly favor holding/buying to get NYB's stock. Whatta bank!
_____________________________________________________________
4/9/03 UPDATE: I would sell this stock and might even consider going short, naked or as part of a hedge. The high volume -- 3X or 4X normal volume -- has been going on for weeks now. The stock is either being bought back by mgmt (to prevent a collapse) or the volume is shorts or longs unloading. What is holding up the stock, I don't know. But given the recent balance sheet disclosures -- "Heads We Lose, Tails We Lose" -- I don't want to stay around and find out.
This bank once had a premium P/E. A triple in 15 months from the IPO was clearly too much too soon. I don't own RSLN but if I did I would dump every share. And I'm generally positive on thrifts overall, even willing to ride them down on any market-related weakness or "sell the thrifs" call by a misguided Wall Street sell-sider.
Sell RSLN. No reason to own it if you want exposure to quality NYC thrifts.
________________________
This bank is a text-book reason for utilizing the MHC structure. RSLN's management has not distinguished themselves with a series of false-starts, mistimed acquisitions, and a lucrative but sleepy franchise.
Their once premium P/E has now been dissipated and the only remaining question is who they sell out to. NYCB is the best geographical fit, but a 20% premium from NYCB or AF or GPT would probably be welcome at this point.
I'm rating Roslyn HOLD unless you want to give it a speculative BUY rating based on an acquisition. Since the NYC thrift market has been dead for so long, I can't bet on that and will go with the HOLD rating.
Was this user's rating of 'RSLN' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
SFFS
--
|
|
SFFS |
Dec. 18 2002, 4:44 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Strong Sell |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
SYNF
--
|
|
SYNF |
Nov. 24 2002, 1:01 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:34 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
SYNF |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:34 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Hold |
|
SYNF performance: |
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 5.45
Recent price (10/05/2007): 15.22
Price change: +9.77
Dividends collected: 0.68
Gain/Loss over 7885 days: +10.45 +191.74%
Annualized Gain/Loss: +8.88%
|
July 2003 Update: Others with a better handle say their business lines are kicking-butt but it still looks pricey to me. Can drop 3 points in a few days on 5,000 shares. Not exactly the Hudson City of liquidity here!
That said, it's a takeover play down the line. Hold your nose, buy here, if it goes lower, buy more.
Don't Fight The Fed.....Don't Fight SYNF.
___________________________________________________________
Long-term this stock may well be remutualized, but I have to rate it HOLD right now on a formal basis, and I would lean towards SELL for those with big profits who are more short-term oriented.
To rate something highly simply based on remutualization value, without regards to valuation, price runup, asset quality, etc, is a bit reckless.
On any major thrift correction or stock market meltdown, SYNF would come down hard. I'd add the stock at that time.
Was this user's rating of 'SYNF' helpful to you? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Currently: |
|
4
said yes (of 7 -- 57.14%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
TCBI
--
|
|
TCBI |
Feb. 11 2004, 1:32 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
--
TONE
--
|
|
TONE |
Dec. 29 2002, 8:07 PM ET Rating changed on Jul. 18 2003, 10:32 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|
|
TONE |
Jul. 18 2003, 10:32 PM ET |
by corvettekid (view profile) |
rating: Buy |
|
|
|
back to top
|