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These ratings are posted by site users; this content is not intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com

Average returns on corvettekid's ratings:

Rating Avg. Return Annualized Key:
- : rated buy, stock went down
+ : rated sell, stock went up
+/- : rated hold
+ : rated buy, stock went up
- : rated sell, stock went down
strong buy +54.49%(over an avg. of 4279.73 days) +4.65%
buy +69.14%(over an avg. of 4048.20 days) +6.23%
hold +19.26%(over an avg. of 4312.38 days) +1.63%
strong sell +45.56%(over an avg. of 3439.50 days) +4.83%


Jump to rating for: ACAS   AMFH   FPTB   FTCG   GPT   HCBK   MO   NABC   OCFC   PFE   PFS   PRTR   RSLN   SFFS   SYNF   TCBI   TONE  

NOTE: areas highlighted in blue indicate that this user is sharing the highlighted information with their private group ONLY
-- ACAS --
ACAS Dec. 12 2002, 3:49 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:18 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (12/12/2002): 21.55
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 27.70
Price change: +6.15
Dividends collected: 1.37

Gain/Loss over 217 days: +7.52 +34.90% Annualized Gain/Loss: +58.70%
I'm venturing a bit off the reservation here because my knowledge of ACAS is not as in-depth as I would like. But I am familiar with their method of operations, and having seen these kinds of leveraged vehicles implode in the past, I certainly see why Herb would put out the STOP sign.

At the same time, guys I follow and respect like Hi and JJR think very highly of the stock.

What to do? Well, if it was early in the cycle -- which is when you want to own a stock like ACAS with maximum dividend streams and cap appreciation still to come -- I'd say BUY. But this late in the cycle, well, they say that those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it. But ACAS has solid management and I think they are less likely to suffer the problems others had once rates turn up and/or housing turns down.

I think that with interest rates unlikely to spike up big, and with the Fed on HOLD, I think I feel comfortable staying away from the SELL recommendation and immitating the Fed.

HOLD

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ACAS Jul. 18 2003, 10:18 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 27.70
Recent price (01/03/2017): 17.99
Price change: -9.71
Dividends collected: 18.64

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +8.93 +32.24% Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.76%
July '03 Update: If JJR is out of it, I should be too (lol). Seriousley, rising rates can't help from here forward. Not sure if this is a short, but easy money has been made and if things continue positively, less risk in basic thrifts. Keep ACAS in your mind when the cycle goes rotten again, but for now, time to dump the leveraged plays.
______________________________________________________

I'm venturing a bit off the reservation here because my knowledge of ACAS is not as in-depth as I would like. But I am familiar with their method of operations, and having seen these kinds of leveraged vehicles implode in the past, I certainly see why Herb would put out the STOP sign.

At the same time, guys I follow and respect like Hi and JJR think very highly of the stock.

What to do? Well, if it was early in the cycle -- which is when you want to own a stock like ACAS with maximum dividend streams and cap appreciation still to come -- I'd say BUY. But this late in the cycle, well, they say that those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it. But ACAS has solid management and I think they are less likely to suffer the problems others had once rates turn up and/or housing turns down.

I think that with interest rates unlikely to spike up big, and with the Fed on HOLD, I think I feel comfortable staying away from the SELL recommendation and immitating the Fed.

HOLD

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 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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-- AMFH --
AMFH Nov. 30 2002, 01:14 AM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
AMFH performance:
Price near date of rating (12/02/2002): 29.63
Recent price (02/14/2003): 29.83
Price change: +0.20
Dividends collected: 0.18

Gain/Loss over 6900 days: +0.38 +1.28% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.07%
Why are we rating a stock that is going to be acquired?

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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-- FPTB --
FPTB Dec. 29 2002, 8:10 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
FPTB performance:
Price near date of rating (12/30/2002): 16.83
Recent price (09/30/2011): 11.33
Price change: -5.50
Dividends collected: 4.12

Gain/Loss over 6871 days: -1.38 -8.19% Annualized Gain/Loss: -0.44%
Tough business environment with the giant West Coast thrifts and some monster credit unions. Buy on major weakness, management is good, but current price discounts alot of good ahead.

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-- FTCG --
FTCG Jul. 14 2003, 10:56 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 14 2003, 10:56 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
FTCG performance:
Price near date of rating (07/14/2003): 51.30
Price near end of rating (07/14/2003): 51.30

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
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FTCG Jul. 14 2003, 10:56 PM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 28 2003, 11:57 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
FTCG performance:
Price near date of rating (07/14/2003): 51.30
Price near end of rating (10/28/2003): 60.14
Price change: +8.84
Dividends collected: 0.19

Gain/Loss over 106 days: +9.03 +17.60% Annualized Gain/Loss: +60.60%
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
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FTCG Oct. 28 2003, 11:57 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
FTCG performance:
Price near date of rating (10/28/2003): 60.14
Recent price (10/31/2003): 63.35

Gain/Loss over 6568 days: +3.21 +5.34% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.30%
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
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-- GPT --
GPT Nov. 21 2002, 1:05 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jan. 24 2003, 09:48 AM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
GPT performance:
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00

Gain/Loss over 64 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.

I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).

Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.

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 2 said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)

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GPT Jan. 24 2003, 09:48 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jan. 24 2003, 09:49 AM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
GPT performance:
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and TBV

I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
___________________________________________



The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.

I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).

Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.

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GPT Jan. 24 2003, 09:49 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jan. 24 2003, 3:13 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
GPT performance:
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.

I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
___________________________________________



The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.

I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).

Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.

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GPT Jan. 24 2003, 3:13 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:22 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
GPT performance:
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00

Gain/Loss over 174 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.

I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.

If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
___________________________________________



The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.

I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).

Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.

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GPT Jul. 18 2003, 10:22 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:23 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
GPT performance:
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Price near end of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
You could say they missed by a penny, but estimates had been rising for weeks and months leading up to the quarter so that would be harsh. Pipeline is solid, company is less affected by refis than others, No-Doc continues to plug along, Alt-A is strong.

2 dividend boosts within 3 months (!) and continued strong buybacks. Stock is splitting, which could be the prelude to an accretive acquisition (Astoria? ICBC? DCOM? FFIC?). This company is a free cash flow machine.

TJ is on the horn saying he's not averse to selling, but wants to buy first and then sell. Either way, stock should move up.

Stock is still too cheap. It sold for 6X earnings in March 2000 and sells for 9X earnings now? Sorry, that can't be what they call a peak multiple.
_________________________________________________________



Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.

I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.

If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
___________________________________________



The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.

I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).

Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.

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GPT Jul. 18 2003, 10:23 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
GPT performance:
Price near date of rating (05/21/2013): 30.00
Recent price (10/15/2018): 27.48
Price change: -2.52
Dividends collected: 7.878

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +5.36 +17.86% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.98%
Q2 2003 Update: You could say they missed by a penny, but estimates had been rising for weeks and months leading up to the quarter so that would be harsh. Pipeline is solid, company is less affected by refis than others, No-Doc continues to plug along, Alt-A is strong.

2 dividend boosts within 3 months (!) and continued strong buybacks. Stock is splitting, which could be the prelude to an accretive acquisition (Astoria? ICBC? DCOM? FFIC?). This company is a free cash flow machine.

TJ is on the horn saying he's not averse to selling, but wants to buy first and then sell. Either way, stock should move up.

Stock is still too cheap. It sold for 6X earnings in March 2000 and sells for 9X earnings now? Sorry, that can't be what they call a peak multiple.
_________________________________________________________



Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.

I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.

If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
___________________________________________



The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.

I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).

Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.

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-- HCBK --
HCBK Nov. 22 2002, 4:38 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:25 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Buy
HCBK performance:
Price near date of rating (11/22/2002): 5.92
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 8.35
Price change: +2.43
Dividends collected: 0.07174

Gain/Loss over 237 days: +2.50 +42.26% Annualized Gain/Loss: +65.08%
HCBK has run up alot since 1999, but the bank's size and premier locations make it a must-have core holding in any investor's portfolio. The bank has a super-conservative lending policy and should weather a real estate crunch as well as Superman deflects a bullet.

I would have hoped for more aggressive dividend and/or buyback policies by now (compare HCBK to CFFN), but that might reflect the management's "we'll do it our way" approach.

I would be more aggressive a few points lower but HCBK is fine to buy under $20.

The only negative is that a purchase of the MHC is near-impossible by existing potential bidders and a 2nd-Step will squash more when or if it happens because of the capital raised. HOWEVER, if you get some consolidation in the NYC thrift arena then I can see a super-regional, quasi-national NYC thrift like GPT or AF or NYCB swelling to $50 BB in assets by 2005 and then lurching across the Hudson to get HCBK and all those cheap deposits.

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HCBK Jul. 18 2003, 10:25 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Buy
HCBK performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 8.35
Recent price (10/30/2015): 10.12
Price change: +1.77
Dividends collected: 3.99668

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +5.77 +69.06% Annualized Gain/Loss: +3.78%
Q2 2003 Update: Don't make the same mistake I made in 1999....BUY THE STOCK !!!!!!!

End Of Story.

As Elaine said to The Soup Nazi......"NEXT!!!!!!!!"

__________________________________________________________




HCBK has run up alot since 1999, but the bank's size and premier locations make it a must-have core holding in any investor's portfolio. The bank has a super-conservative lending policy and should weather a real estate crunch as well as Superman deflects a bullet.

I would have hoped for more aggressive dividend and/or buyback policies by now (compare HCBK to CFFN), but that might reflect the management's "we'll do it our way" approach.

I would be more aggressive a few points lower but HCBK is fine to buy under $20.

The only negative is that a purchase of the MHC is near-impossible by existing potential bidders and a 2nd-Step will squash more when or if it happens because of the capital raised. HOWEVER, if you get some consolidation in the NYC thrift arena then I can see a super-regional, quasi-national NYC thrift like GPT or AF or NYCB swelling to $50 BB in assets by 2005 and then lurching across the Hudson to get HCBK and all those cheap deposits.

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-- MO --
MO Dec. 20 2002, 10:26 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MO performance:
Price near date of rating (12/20/2002): 41.12
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Price change: -0.84
Dividends collected: 1.28

Gain/Loss over 209 days: +0.44 +1.07% Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.87%
7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."

If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.

I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.

I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).

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MO Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MO performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
Litigation UpdateIt's pretty apparent that as you go higher in the appelate process, there is less support for idiotic judgements. Hence, a few weeks ago MO got a favorable ruling in the Illinois bond decision, and the stock spurted 25%.

The stock could go back to $35 in a heartbeat -- but it's a chance to buy more super-cheap or just sit back and reinvest that 2%-per-quarter dividend.

Too bad they don't make Laramie cigarettes. Or Morley's.


7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."

If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.

I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.

I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).

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MO Jul. 18 2003, 10:15 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:16 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MO performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
Litigation Update It's pretty apparent that as you go higher in the appelate process, there is less support for idiotic judgements. Hence, a few weeks ago MO got a favorable ruling in the Illinois bond decision, and the stock spurted 25%.

The stock could go back to $35 in a heartbeat -- but it's a chance to buy more super-cheap or just sit back and reinvest that 2%-per-quarter dividend.

Too bad they don't make Laramie cigarettes. Or Morley's.


7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."

If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.

I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.

I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).

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MO Jul. 18 2003, 10:16 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MO performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 40.28
Recent price (10/20/2021): 48.43
Price change: +8.15
Dividends collected: 117.039

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +125.19 +310.80% Annualized Gain/Loss: +17.01%
Litigation Update: It's pretty apparent that as you go higher in the appelate process, there is less support for idiotic judgements. Hence, a few weeks ago MO got a favorable ruling in the Illinois bond decision, and the stock spurted 25%.

The stock could go back to $35 in a heartbeat -- but it's a chance to buy more super-cheap or just sit back and reinvest that 2%-per-quarter dividend.

Too bad they don't make Laramie cigarettes. Or Morley's.
____________________________________________________________

7% yield in a company with strong free cash flow generating abilities. Folks, this country was founded on tobacco (Williamstown, VA) and people were smoking tobacco long before "Call for Philip Morris" ran on "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners."

If you want to pass, I understand. But with a 7% yield in a market yielding 1.5%, and with 50% of all stock gains historically coming from dividends, this is a Shaquille O'Neal layup. And the lawsuits are just another stubbed toe to overcome for The Big Fella.

I don't understand the hostility to this company. I have no problem with someone not wanting to own it, just like a pacificst might not want to own a defense stock. But analogies to slavery, disease, junk food -- with apologies to Ian Fleming, You Only Live Once. As long as you moderate your smoking and junk food, you should be OK.

I respect your rights to be wrong! (LOL).

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-- NABC --
NABC Apr. 20 2004, 5:41 PM ET
Rating changed on
Apr. 20 2004, 5:43 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
NABC performance:
Price near date of rating (04/20/2004): 13.90
Price near end of rating (04/20/2004): 13.90

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
A Connecticut juggernaut in the making, NewAlliance is poised to become a big winner in the lucrative CT banking market. My Plusses and Minuses follow:

Plusses:

(1) BV of $12.50 a share (TBV of $8.00/sh) gives stock some floor during turbulent times.
(2) Lousy efficiency ratio offers cost-savings to flow to earnings down th eline.
(3) Large cash hoard and asset-sensitive nature of balance sheet bodes well if rates start to rise.
(4) Mgmt. is diverse, experienced, and well-versed in CT marketplace.
(5) Russell 2000 buying should buoy stock in coming months.
(6) Expect a dividend.
(7) Capital already deployed via SBMC/ANE purchases; no surprises ala PFS likely.
(8) Many "flippers" probably exited stock during first 2 weeks; replay of 3-6 month trading pattersn of BRKL and ICBC substantially reduced barring dramatic downdrafts.

Minuses

(1) Can't sell bank for 5 years (as if important to institutions with 3 month time horizon??)
(2) TBV lower than BV -- result of acquisitions.
(3) No stock buybacks for 11 1/2 months.
(4) Limited dividend potential due to depressed earnings.
(5) Hostile thrift/bank environment with Fed likely to be tightening in coming quarters.
(6) Loss of New Haven Savings Bank name could prevent bank from picking up other bank's PO'd customers from M&A in state.

NewAlliance is certainly a long-term winner. In trying to analyze for the next 6-12 months, I look at the Provident trading history. Adjusting for the fact that the Fed was on hold during that time (though the mortgage market had some turbulent times) and that the overall stock market was rising, I think it's safe to say that if we have a slow-and-steady rising market through the Election that NABC could inch it's way up into the $16.00 range and settle there, with a potential spike to $18.00. Each of these numbers is about 15% lower than PFS for it's range and spike figures; this "haircut" represents my valuation of the less-friendly rate environment, sluggish market, and higher valuation embedded in NABC. Perhaps the discount should be more; perhaps thrifts have one final fling where NABC matches the performance of PFS and TONE. A middling ground seems fair and those price targets seem reasonable within a 6-9 month time horizon. I peg fair value for this stock at 110% of book, so I rate it a STRONG BUY at current levels for both short-term speculators and long-term investors. Good Luck!!

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NABC Apr. 20 2004, 5:43 PM ET
Rating changed on
Apr. 21 2004, 9:02 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
NABC performance:
Price near date of rating (04/20/2004): 13.90
Price near end of rating (04/21/2004): 13.85

Gain/Loss over 1 day: -0.05 -0.36% Annualized Gain/Loss: -131.40%
A Connecticut juggernaut in the making, NewAlliance is poised to become a big winner in the lucrative CT banking market. My Plusses and Minuses follow:

Plusses:

(1) BV of $12.50 a share (TBV of $8.00/sh) gives stock some floor during turbulent times.
(2) Lousy efficiency ratio offers cost-savings to flow to earnings down the line.
(3) Large cash hoard and asset-sensitive nature of balance sheet bodes well if rates start to rise.
(4) Mgmt. is diverse, experienced, and well-versed in CT marketplace.
(5) Russell 2000 buying should buoy stock in coming months.
(6) Expect a dividend.
(7) Capital already deployed via SBMC/ANE purchases; no surprises ala PFS likely.
(8) Many "flippers" probably exited stock during first 2 weeks; replay of 3-6 month trading pattersn of BRKL and ICBC substantially reduced barring dramatic downdrafts.

Minuses

(1) Can't sell bank for 5 years (as if important to institutions with 3 month time horizon??)
(2) TBV lower than BV -- result of acquisitions.
(3) No stock buybacks for 11 1/2 months.
(4) Limited dividend potential due to depressed earnings.
(5) Hostile thrift/bank environment with Fed likely to be tightening in coming quarters.
(6) Loss of New Haven Savings Bank name could prevent bank from picking up other bank's PO'd customers from M&A in state.

NewAlliance is certainly a long-term winner. In trying to analyze for the next 6-12 months, I look at the Provident trading history. Adjusting for the fact that the Fed was on hold during that time (though the mortgage market had some turbulent times) and that the overall stock market was rising, I think it's safe to say that if we have a slow-and-steady rising market through the Election that NABC could inch it's way up into the $16.00 range and settle there, with a potential spike to $18.00. Each of these numbers is about 15% lower than PFS for it's range and spike figures; this "haircut" represents my estimation of the less-friendly rate environment, sluggish market, and higher valuation embedded in NABC. Perhaps the discount should be more, or perhaps thrifts have one final fling where NABC matches or even exceeds the performance of PFS and TONE. A middling ground seems a fair compromise and those price targets seem reasonable within a 6-9 month time horizon. I peg fair value for this stock at 110% of book, so I rate it a STRONG BUY at current levels for both short-term speculators and long-term investors. Good Luck!!

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NABC Apr. 21 2004, 9:02 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
NABC performance:
Price near date of rating (04/21/2004): 13.85
Recent price (12/13/2004): 14.79
Price change: +0.94
Dividends collected: 0.08

Gain/Loss over 6393 days: +1.02 +7.36% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.42%
A Connecticut juggernaut in the making, NewAlliance is poised to become a big winner in the lucrative CT banking market. My Plusses and Minuses follow:

Plusses:

(1) BV of $12.50 a share (TBV of $8.00/sh) gives stock some floor during turbulent times.
(2) Lousy efficiency ratio offers cost-savings to flow to earnings down the line.
(3) Large cash hoard and asset-sensitive nature of balance sheet bodes well if rates start to rise.
(4) Mgmt. is diverse, experienced, and well-versed in CT marketplace.
(5) Russell 2000 buying should buoy stock in coming months.
(6) Expect a dividend.
(7) Capital already deployed via SBMC/ANE purchases; no surprises ala PFS likely.
(8) Many "flippers" probably exited stock during first 2 weeks; replay of 3-6 month trading patterns of BRKL and ICBC substantially reduced barring dramatic downdrafts.

Minuses

(1) Can't sell bank for 5 years (as if important to institutions with 3 month time horizon??)
(2) TBV lower than BV -- result of acquisitions.
(3) No stock buybacks for 11 1/2 months.
(4) Limited dividend potential due to depressed earnings.
(5) Hostile thrift/bank environment with Fed likely to be tightening in coming quarters.
(6) Loss of New Haven Savings Bank name could prevent bank from picking up other bank's PO'd customers from M&A in state.

NewAlliance is certainly a long-term winner. In trying to analyze for the next 6-12 months, I look at the Provident trading history. Adjusting for the fact that the Fed was on hold during that time (though the mortgage market had some turbulent times) and that the overall stock market was rising, I think it's safe to say that if we have a slow-and-steady rising market through the Election that NABC could inch it's way up into the $16.00 range and settle there, with a potential spike to $18.00. Each of these numbers is about 15% lower than PFS for it's range and spike figures; this "haircut" represents my estimation of the less-friendly rate environment, sluggish market, and higher valuation embedded in NABC. Perhaps the discount should be more, or perhaps thrifts have one final fling where NABC matches or even exceeds the performance of PFS and TONE. A middling ground seems a fair compromise and those price targets seem reasonable within a 6-9 month time horizon. I peg fair value for this stock at 110-130% of book, so I rate it a STRONG BUY at current levels for both short-term speculators and long-term investors. Good Luck!!

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-- OCFC --
OCFC Jul. 18 2003, 10:27 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
OCFC performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 25.08
Recent price (10/20/2021): 22.12
Price change: -2.96
Dividends collected: 11.64

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +8.68 +34.61% Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.89%
Maybe too far south for Provident, but others are on the prowl in The Garden State. Even the poet laureate!

Seriousley, not many southern NJ targets. When 1 goes, it could be a quick meal of the rest. Gotta get in NOW...no time when the headlines appear.

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-- PFE --
PFE Nov. 22 2002, 2:26 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
PFE performance:
Price near date of rating (11/22/2002): 30.71
Recent price (10/20/2021): 42.80
Price change: +12.09
Dividends collected: 18.77909

Gain/Loss over 6908 days: +30.87 +100.52% Annualized Gain/Loss: +5.31%
The stock is relatively cheap compared to past valuations -- where have we heard THAT before? -- but I would rather pay 24X earnings for a premier drug company than the S&P500 which is growing at 1/2-1/3rd the earnings growth rate.

A word of caution. Pfizer does have a good pipeline and had it's share of blockbusters in the late 1990's, getting a nice rise out of Viagra (pun intended). However, this is a company that has historically overestimated it's clinical successes in early-stage testing and had a less than sterling batting average in turning out successful drugs from it's pipeline, let alone blockbusters. For some reason, Wall Street is more forgiving of Pfizer than other companies (more investment banking dollars?).

That said, I agree this is a good company. Interesting that this company has done 2 big mergers within 3 years. Give them an "A" on being proactive in a tough environment, but it probably also goes a ways towards showing that their organic growth and R&D efforts have hit a wall and that they wanted to use their rich currency before it evaporated: use it or lose it.

All that quibbling aside, I rate the company STRONG BUY.

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-- PFS --
PFS Dec. 18 2002, 11:17 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jan. 17 2003, 4:15 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
PFS performance:
Price near date of rating (01/16/2003): 15.50
Price near end of rating (01/17/2003): 15.85

Gain/Loss over 30 days: +0.35 +2.26% Annualized Gain/Loss: +27.50%
I'm rating this STRONG BUY based on the IPO price of $10.00 per share. I think the chances of it breaking the IPO price are very slim, UNLESS we go to war with Iraq or something like that breaks (in which case, I would hope Sandler would postpone the IPO and not pull a Sound Federal).

I would buy the stock up to $15 for LONG TERM BUYERS but I need to see a quarter or two of earnings as well as where the thrift cycle goes to judge if this is a buy for the intermeidate term. The housing market rarely tanks during a presidential year so maybe the thrift cycle extends out. If so, this could be a great buy into 2005.

Lot's of if's and hedges here, I know. I will re-evaluate once public trading begins.

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PFS Jan. 17 2003, 4:15 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:11 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
PFS performance:
Price near date of rating (01/17/2003): 15.85
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 18.55
Price change: +2.70
Dividends collected: 0.04

Gain/Loss over 181 days: +2.74 +17.29% Annualized Gain/Loss: +34.87%
POST-IPO COMMENTS I am sticking with the STRONG BUY rating but that's based on a long-term holder. I can't say to aggressively buy the stock at 110-115% of book. You can buy some, but make sure it's capital you are comfortable committing long-term.

The institutions clearly want this stock and that could be one caveat to the upside. If Provident has identified a way to spend it's $600 MM warchest and really boost earnings -- and if the hedgies/funds know this -- then maybe they are willing to pay higher prices for what it will be worth 12-18 months down the road. Let's face it, there aren't too many glitzy alternatives. 1/17/03
____________________________________________________

I'm rating this STRONG BUY based on the IPO price of $10.00 per share. I think the chances of it breaking the IPO price are very slim, UNLESS we go to war with Iraq or something like that breaks (in which case, I would hope Sandler would postpone the IPO and not pull a Sound Federal).

I would buy the stock up to $15 for LONG TERM BUYERS but I need to see a quarter or two of earnings as well as where the thrift cycle goes to judge if this is a buy for the intermeidate term. The housing market rarely tanks during a presidential year so maybe the thrift cycle extends out. If so, this could be a great buy into 2005.

Lot's of if's and hedges here, I know. I will re-evaluate once public trading begins.

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PFS Jul. 18 2003, 10:11 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
PFS performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 18.55
Recent price (10/20/2021): 24.88
Price change: +6.33
Dividends collected: 10.77

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +17.10 +92.18% Annualized Gain/Loss: +5.04%
Q2 Update Provident is basically a supply-and-demand story at this point. To buy it based on short-term or intermediate-term fundamentals is specious. You have to like the story long-term...BUT, there is a case to be made for this stock going higher if bank/thrift stocks hold up. I could see this stock reaching the low-to-mid 20's based strictly on buying flows the next few quarters.

Having qualified my rating, I am going to tepidly hold it as STRONG BUY -- for now. I reserve the right to downgrade at higher prices, unless something comes along to underpin the fundamentals or justify a sudden spurt in tangible book value. Obviousley, improving interest rate conditions, business expansion, a good acquisition, or superb capital managment (dividend boosts quarterly + expedited buybacks) could also allow me to keep the rating as we move higher.

In short, lots has changed in 6 months -- but the rating hasn't. As Ahnold said in T2...."Stick Around....."

POST-IPO COMMENTS I am sticking with the STRONG BUY rating but that's based on a long-term holder. I can't say to aggressively buy the stock at 110-115% of book. You can buy some, but make sure it's capital you are comfortable committing long-term.

The institutions clearly want this stock and that could be one caveat to the upside. If Provident has identified a way to spend it's $600 MM warchest and really boost earnings -- and if the hedgies/funds know this -- then maybe they are willing to pay higher prices for what it will be worth 12-18 months down the road. Let's face it, there aren't too many glitzy alternatives. 1/17/03
____________________________________________________

I'm rating this STRONG BUY based on the IPO price of $10.00 per share. I think the chances of it breaking the IPO price are very slim, UNLESS we go to war with Iraq or something like that breaks (in which case, I would hope Sandler would postpone the IPO and not pull a Sound Federal).

I would buy the stock up to $15 for LONG TERM BUYERS but I need to see a quarter or two of earnings as well as where the thrift cycle goes to judge if this is a buy for the intermeidate term. The housing market rarely tanks during a presidential year so maybe the thrift cycle extends out. If so, this could be a great buy into 2005.

Lot's of if's and hedges here, I know. I will re-evaluate once public trading begins.

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-- PRTR --
PRTR Dec. 2 2002, 7:42 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Recent price (10/20/2021): 0.11

Gain/Loss over 6898 days: -0.90 -89.11% Annualized Gain/Loss: -4.72%
Having gone to school in the area, I'm well-acquainted with their target area. Their main branch looks like it was plunked out of those marble-pillar NYC banks and could fit a small rocketship inside.

I think the stock is ahead of itself at this point. To rate it BUY or higher based strictly on remutalization value -- considering the area and the chances of that happening soon -- is speculative at best. It's nice to know a "remute" value, but it's like private market value or takeover value: it's only a guestimate and floor for the stock price. And not a particularly sturdy one at that.

I would be more aggressive on this stock at lower levels for new buyers. At these levels, it's strictly a speculation based on the MHC structure for a bank that's out in the boondocks.

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-- RSLN --
RSLN Nov. 21 2002, 2:35 PM ET
Rating changed on
Apr. 10 2003, 5:24 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
RSLN performance:
Price near date of rating (11/21/2002): 18.16
Price near end of rating (04/10/2003): 17.66
Price change: -0.50
Dividends collected: 0.29

Gain/Loss over 139 days: -0.21 -1.16% Annualized Gain/Loss: -3.05%
This bank is a text-book reason for utilizing the MHC structure. RSLN's management has not distinguished themselves with a series of false-starts, mistimed acquisitions, and a lucrative but sleepy franchise.

Their once premium P/E has now been dissipated and the only remaining question is who they sell out to. NYCB is the best geographical fit, but a 20% premium from NYCB or AF or GPT would probably be welcome at this point.

I'm rating Roslyn HOLD unless you want to give it a speculative BUY rating based on an acquisition. Since the NYC thrift market has been dead for so long, I can't bet on that and will go with the HOLD rating.

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RSLN Apr. 10 2003, 5:24 PM ET
Rating changed on
Apr. 10 2003, 5:25 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
RSLN performance:
Price near date of rating (04/10/2003): 17.66
Price near end of rating (04/10/2003): 17.66

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
4/9/03 UPDATE I would sell this stock and might even consider going short, naked or as part of a hedge. The high volume -- 3X or 4X normal volume -- has been going on for weeks now. The stock is either being bough back by mgmt. or the volume is shorts or longs unloading. What is holding up the stock, I don't know. But given the recent balance sheet disclosures -- "Heads We Lose, Tails We Lose" -- I don't want to stay around and find out.

This bank once had a premium P/E. A triple in 15 months from the IPO was clearly too much too soon. I don't own RSLN but if I did I would dump every share. And I'm generally positive on thrifts overall, even willing to ride them down on any market-related weakness or "sell the thrifs" call by a misguided Wall Street sell-sider.
________________________

This bank is a text-book reason for utilizing the MHC structure. RSLN's management has not distinguished themselves with a series of false-starts, mistimed acquisitions, and a lucrative but sleepy franchise.

Their once premium P/E has now been dissipated and the only remaining question is who they sell out to. NYCB is the best geographical fit, but a 20% premium from NYCB or AF or GPT would probably be welcome at this point.

I'm rating Roslyn HOLD unless you want to give it a speculative BUY rating based on an acquisition. Since the NYC thrift market has been dead for so long, I can't bet on that and will go with the HOLD rating.

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RSLN Apr. 10 2003, 5:25 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:29 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
RSLN performance:
Price near date of rating (04/10/2003): 17.66
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 23.50
Price change: +5.84
Dividends collected: 0.155

Gain/Loss over 99 days: +6.00 +33.95% Annualized Gain/Loss: +125.17%
4/9/03 UPDATE: I would sell this stock and might even consider going short, naked or as part of a hedge. The high volume -- 3X or 4X normal volume -- has been going on for weeks now. The stock is either being bought back by mgmt (to prevent a collapse) or the volume is shorts or longs unloading. What is holding up the stock, I don't know. But given the recent balance sheet disclosures -- "Heads We Lose, Tails We Lose" -- I don't want to stay around and find out.

This bank once had a premium P/E. A triple in 15 months from the IPO was clearly too much too soon. I don't own RSLN but if I did I would dump every share. And I'm generally positive on thrifts overall, even willing to ride them down on any market-related weakness or "sell the thrifs" call by a misguided Wall Street sell-sider.

Sell RSLN. No reason to own it if you want exposure to quality NYC thrifts.
________________________

This bank is a text-book reason for utilizing the MHC structure. RSLN's management has not distinguished themselves with a series of false-starts, mistimed acquisitions, and a lucrative but sleepy franchise.

Their once premium P/E has now been dissipated and the only remaining question is who they sell out to. NYCB is the best geographical fit, but a 20% premium from NYCB or AF or GPT would probably be welcome at this point.

I'm rating Roslyn HOLD unless you want to give it a speculative BUY rating based on an acquisition. Since the NYC thrift market has been dead for so long, I can't bet on that and will go with the HOLD rating.

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RSLN Jul. 18 2003, 10:29 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
RSLN performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 23.50
Recent price (10/31/2003): 27.05
Price change: +3.55
Dividends collected: 0.155

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +3.71 +15.77% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.86%
July 2003 Update: Now you know why I never panned out as a hedge fund manager.

Lots of people say they're shocked when they're wrong, but this is really my most shocking short-term miss in thriftland since I started in 1993. I really didn't see this one coming. It's like Mariano Rivera blowing Game 7 in 2001...theoretically possible, but you never gave it good odds. Kudos to Mancino and the gang. I never though they'd get the consolidation wave going...guess they outsmarted alot of people. Including me.

I strongly favor holding/buying to get NYB's stock. Whatta bank!
_____________________________________________________________


4/9/03 UPDATE: I would sell this stock and might even consider going short, naked or as part of a hedge. The high volume -- 3X or 4X normal volume -- has been going on for weeks now. The stock is either being bought back by mgmt (to prevent a collapse) or the volume is shorts or longs unloading. What is holding up the stock, I don't know. But given the recent balance sheet disclosures -- "Heads We Lose, Tails We Lose" -- I don't want to stay around and find out.

This bank once had a premium P/E. A triple in 15 months from the IPO was clearly too much too soon. I don't own RSLN but if I did I would dump every share. And I'm generally positive on thrifts overall, even willing to ride them down on any market-related weakness or "sell the thrifs" call by a misguided Wall Street sell-sider.

Sell RSLN. No reason to own it if you want exposure to quality NYC thrifts.
________________________

This bank is a text-book reason for utilizing the MHC structure. RSLN's management has not distinguished themselves with a series of false-starts, mistimed acquisitions, and a lucrative but sleepy franchise.

Their once premium P/E has now been dissipated and the only remaining question is who they sell out to. NYCB is the best geographical fit, but a 20% premium from NYCB or AF or GPT would probably be welcome at this point.

I'm rating Roslyn HOLD unless you want to give it a speculative BUY rating based on an acquisition. Since the NYC thrift market has been dead for so long, I can't bet on that and will go with the HOLD rating.

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-- SFFS --
SFFS Dec. 18 2002, 4:44 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
SFFS performance:
Price near date of rating (12/18/2002): 10.88
Recent price (07/17/2006): 20.72
Price change: +9.84
Dividends collected: 0.87

Gain/Loss over 6882 days: +10.71 +98.44% Annualized Gain/Loss: +5.22%
I don't like these SOB's...hey, give me credit for being honest. They
wouldn't let me open an account even though I am a short drive from their branches.

So this review and rating isn't based on fundies or fairness. It's a biased, emotional, rant against a bank I hold a grudge against.

Gotta love my honesty, right.

DROP DEAD, SFFS!!!

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-- SYNF --
SYNF Nov. 24 2002, 1:01 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:34 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (01/06/2003): 4.57
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 5.45

Gain/Loss over 235 days: +0.88 +19.26% Annualized Gain/Loss: +29.91%
Long-term this stock may well be remutualized, but I have to rate it HOLD right now on a formal basis, and I would lean towards SELL for those with big profits who are more short-term oriented.

To rate something highly simply based on remutualization value, without regards to valuation, price runup, asset quality, etc, is a bit reckless.

On any major thrift correction or stock market meltdown, SYNF would come down hard. I'd add the stock at that time.

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Currently: 
 4 said yes (of 7 -- 57.14%)

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SYNF Jul. 18 2003, 10:34 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Hold
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 5.45
Recent price (10/05/2007): 15.22
Price change: +9.77
Dividends collected: 0.68

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: +10.45 +191.74% Annualized Gain/Loss: +10.49%
July 2003 Update: Others with a better handle say their business lines are kicking-butt but it still looks pricey to me. Can drop 3 points in a few days on 5,000 shares. Not exactly the Hudson City of liquidity here!

That said, it's a takeover play down the line. Hold your nose, buy here, if it goes lower, buy more.

Don't Fight The Fed.....Don't Fight SYNF.
___________________________________________________________

Long-term this stock may well be remutualized, but I have to rate it HOLD right now on a formal basis, and I would lean towards SELL for those with big profits who are more short-term oriented.

To rate something highly simply based on remutualization value, without regards to valuation, price runup, asset quality, etc, is a bit reckless.

On any major thrift correction or stock market meltdown, SYNF would come down hard. I'd add the stock at that time.

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Currently: 
 4 said yes (of 7 -- 57.14%)

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-- TCBI --
TCBI Feb. 11 2004, 1:32 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Buy
TCBI performance:
Price near date of rating (02/11/2004): 15.34
Recent price (10/21/2021): 59.86

Gain/Loss over 6462 days: +44.52 +290.22% Annualized Gain/Loss: +16.39%
Texas Capital Bancshares is a fairly new Texas bank that is headed by many veterans of the past Texas banking wars. It is led by Jody Grant, who headed Texas American Bancshares in the 1980's during the most difficult time for a group of banks (Texas banks) in our nation's history (worse than the Depression!). Grant did a commendable job with a horrible deck handed to him.

TCBI is just breaking out of the starters gate. ROA and ROE are nothing to write home about. This is a bank where you are buying for three reasons: (1) Jody Grant and the management team of TCBI, who have contacts and Rolodexes with key Texas bank and business people that would put anybody to shame; (2) A Texas banking market hungry for home-grown banks after a decade of watching big East and West Coast banks come in and help themselves to hurting banks or branches; and (3) A Texas economy and bank sector that will see more Texas start-ups and consolidation going forward.

Texas is alot different economically than it was when "Dallas" aired on Friday nights. The economy is alot more diversified, but it is energy self-sufficient, is growing population-wise quite alot thanks to immigration from other states (and Mexico!).

The demographics, bank environment, and Texas economy all spell "golden opportunity" for smart, savvy bankers. In Jody Grant and his team, you have 'em.

Ride This Cowboy to riches.

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Currently: 
 2 said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)

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-- TONE --
TONE Dec. 29 2002, 8:07 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 18 2003, 10:32 PM ET
by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Buy
TONE performance:
Price near date of rating (12/30/2002): 15.20
Price near end of rating (07/18/2003): 21.08

Gain/Loss over 200 days: +5.88 +38.68% Annualized Gain/Loss: +70.59%
Lots of crosscurrents here...stock has moved up since IPO and since 1st day...strong balance sheet following IPO....lack of institutional selling is a plus liquidity-wise during turbulent times....Nebraska home base is a negative, need to fund loan growth outside territory is also a negative.

Tough call between BUY and HOLD but I will give a slight edge to the stock not having short-term sellers who will be dumping at the first sign of trouble if it happens. With a longer-term perspective to override short-term credit and cyclical considerations, rate TONE a BUY.

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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TONE Jul. 18 2003, 10:32 PM ET by corvettekid (view profile) rating: Buy
TONE performance:
Price near date of rating (07/18/2003): 21.08
Recent price (07/26/2010): 0.02
Price change: -21.06
Dividends collected: 1.13

Gain/Loss over 6671 days: -19.93 -94.54% Annualized Gain/Loss: -5.17%
July 2003 Update: Fully valued...but so what? How many eyeballs view their branches? lol

Decent expansion possibilities going from the boondocks to the East coast, pretty innovative mgmt., stock flows from ESOP and MRP a support. Buy more aggressively on weakness, keep an eye on BV/TBV but this one's a winner.
____________________________________________________

Lots of crosscurrents here...stock has moved up since IPO and since 1st day...strong balance sheet following IPO....lack of institutional selling is a plus liquidity-wise during turbulent times....Nebraska home base is a negative, need to fund loan growth outside territory is also a negative.

Tough call between BUY and HOLD but I will give a slight edge to the stock not having short-term sellers who will be dumping at the first sign of trouble if it happens. With a longer-term perspective to override short-term credit and cyclical considerations, rate TONE a BUY.

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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