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These ratings are posted by site users; this content is not intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com

Average returns on elevenwall's ratings:

Rating Avg. Return Annualized Key:
- : rated buy, stock went down
+ : rated sell, stock went up
+/- : rated hold
+ : rated buy, stock went up
- : rated sell, stock went down
strong buy +34.76%(over an avg. of 1410.80 days) +8.99%
hold +84.97%(over an avg. of 6602.50 days) +4.70%
sell +51.74%(over an avg. of 6547.00 days) +2.88%
strong sell +96.35%(over an avg. of 6557.50 days) +5.36%


Jump to rating for: BCSB   FTCG   MBLA   NWSB   PVTB   SERC   SYNF  

NOTE: areas highlighted in blue indicate that this user is sharing the highlighted information with their private group ONLY
-- BCSB --
BCSB Oct. 30 2003, 3:43 PM ET
Rating changed on
Nov. 18 2003, 2:35 PM ET
by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (10/30/2003): 17.09
Price near end of rating (11/18/2003): 18.01

Gain/Loss over 19 days: +0.92 +5.38% Annualized Gain/Loss: +103.35%
MHCs are popular investments as second step appraisal levels reaching all time highs. BCSB is one of the most inexpensive of the bunch. At its current price of $17.10, I calculate that if BCSB completed a second step offering the shares at 110% of fully converted tangible book value, that the current price/tangible book value is about 80%. With over $600 million in assets BCSB has an attractive franchise. Additionally, given that Northwest (NWSB) acquried another MHC, Leeds Federal (LFED), they could be interested in acquiring another company to expand their business in Baltimore (Leeds only has three branches in Baltimore). If that was the case, it would not surprise me if BCSB got $25 per share in a takeout as an MHC.

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BCSB Nov. 18 2003, 2:35 PM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Hold
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (11/18/2003): 18.01
Recent price (02/14/2014): 24.68
Price change: +6.67
Dividends collected: 1.5

Gain/Loss over 6547 days: +8.17 +45.36% Annualized Gain/Loss: +2.53%
See change of sentiment in the community banking sector. Therefore, I am changing rating on BCSB ($17.80) from Strong buy to hold. Wouldn't buy if I didn't own and would consider selling if long the name.

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MHCs are popular investments as second step appraisal levels reaching all time highs. BCSB is one of the most inexpensive of the bunch. At its current price of $17.10, I calculate that if BCSB completed a second step offering the shares at 110% of fully converted tangible book value, that the current price/tangible book value is about 80%. With over $600 million in assets BCSB has an attractive franchise. Additionally, given that Northwest (NWSB) acquried another MHC, Leeds Federal (LFED), they could be interested in acquiring another company to expand their business in Baltimore (Leeds only has three branches in Baltimore). If that was the case, it would not surprise me if BCSB got $25 per share in a takeout as an MHC.

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-- FTCG --
FTCG Oct. 10 2003, 10:45 AM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
FTCG performance:
Price near date of rating (10/10/2003): 59.30
Recent price (10/31/2003): 63.35

Gain/Loss over 6587 days: +4.05 +6.83% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.38%
I think the KNBT offering will be re-appraised up. Therefore, at $59 FTCG could decline in value. It would surpise me if the regulators let KNBT open with the 60% pop that the market is currently putting on the $10 offering price of KNBT. As FTCG holders get $37 of KBNT in the offering, a re-appraisal up would make the current value of FTCG less. Upside isn't that much as even if the deal goes at the current pricing, KNBT is priced at 145% of tangible book value, 18x earnings, and has 18% tangible equity to assets. Do the math, if they buyback stock after the offering at those prices it will be dilutive to book value, making it even more expensive. FTCG could easily trade down to $53 and has limited upside in my opinion.

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

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-- MBLA --
MBLA Sep. 30 2003, 09:55 AM ET
Rating changed on
Nov. 18 2003, 2:37 PM ET
by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MBLA performance:
Price near date of rating (09/30/2003): 5.81
Price near end of rating (11/18/2003): 7.96

Gain/Loss over 49 days: +2.15 +37.01% Annualized Gain/Loss: +275.69%
Inexpensive, at the current price of $7.50 per share is trading at 106% of book value and 129% of tangible book value. In the most recent quarter they cleaned up their asset quality. If they cut costs and become more efficient they will have a very valuable franchise. With $366 million in assets in the southern California market, this stock should trade up from its current levels. With consolidation in southern CA picking up (BZBC went for nearly 3x tangible book) the upside is much larger than the downside.

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MBLA Nov. 18 2003, 2:37 PM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Sell
MBLA performance:
Price near date of rating (11/18/2003): 7.96
Recent price (03/19/2007): 13.10

Gain/Loss over 6547 days: +5.14 +64.57% Annualized Gain/Loss: +3.60%
Not inexpensive anymore. A month ago, this stock was at $7.50 per share. Now it is at $10.53. There quarter looked ok but not great. As I am seeing a change in sentiment in the community bank sector I would take profits off the table at $10.50.

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Inexpensive, at the current price of $7.50 per share is trading at 106% of book value and 129% of tangible book value. In the most recent quarter they cleaned up their asset quality. If they cut costs and become more efficient they will have a very valuable franchise. With $366 million in assets in the southern California market, this stock should trade up from its current levels. With consolidation in southern CA picking up (BZBC went for nearly 3x tangible book) the upside is much larger than the downside.

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-- NWSB --
NWSB Jul. 31 2003, 07:47 AM ET
Rating changed on
Nov. 18 2003, 2:41 PM ET
by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
NWSB performance:
Price near date of rating (07/31/2003): 16.51
Price near end of rating (11/18/2003): 21.23
Price change: +4.72
Dividends collected: 0.1

Gain/Loss over 110 days: +4.82 +29.19% Annualized Gain/Loss: +96.86%
Interim step offering in progress. Smart management. This is one of the most inexpensive MHCs remaining. They have done an excellent job of deploying excess capital in the last five years. If I were the CEO of NWSB I would be running the show just like they have to date as I would have had stock that I purchased on the IPO and options and wouldn't want to announce a full second step until as much of the capital as possible had been deployed and majority ownership was down to 50.1%. Prior to the recent interim step offering, the holding company owned almost 75% of the outstanding shares. It looks like to me that after the offering the holding company will own about 58% of the outstanding shares. If they don't stop the growth pattern they are currently in, they will need to raise additional capital in the next two years or so. I calculate that following the upcoming offering if you then assumed a second step offering at 110% of tangible book value to depositors that the stock is currently trading at about 80-85% of fully converted book value. If NWSB was to complete a full second step at some time in the future, I think it would trade up to about 140% of full converted book value, in a market environment similar to today's, which would indicate about 75% upside to current prices. Not a bad return over a few years time.

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NWSB Nov. 18 2003, 2:41 PM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Sell
NWSB performance:
Price near date of rating (11/18/2003): 21.23
Recent price (12/17/2009): 25.21
Price change: +3.98
Dividends collected: 4.28

Gain/Loss over 6547 days: +8.26 +38.91% Annualized Gain/Loss: +2.17%
I see changing sentiment in the community banking sector. Was a good buy below $17 but now at $21.50 it is fairly priced...if sector sells of, this stock probably goes lower...wouldn't short but wouldn't hold if long the name.



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Interim step offering in progress. Smart management. This is one of the most inexpensive MHCs remaining. They have done an excellent job of deploying excess capital in the last five years. If I were the CEO of NWSB I would be running the show just like they have to date as I would have had stock that I purchased on the IPO and options and wouldn't want to announce a full second step until as much of the capital as possible had been deployed and majority ownership was down to 50.1%. Prior to the recent interim step offering, the holding company owned almost 75% of the outstanding shares. It looks like to me that after the offering the holding company will own about 58% of the outstanding shares. If they don't stop the growth pattern they are currently in, they will need to raise additional capital in the next two years or so. I calculate that following the upcoming offering if you then assumed a second step offering at 110% of tangible book value to depositors that the stock is currently trading at about 80-85% of fully converted book value. If NWSB was to complete a full second step at some time in the future, I think it would trade up to about 140% of full converted book value, in a market environment similar to today's, which would indicate about 75% upside to current prices. Not a bad return over a few years time.

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-- PVTB --
PVTB Dec. 7 2003, 10:35 AM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
PVTB performance:
Price near date of rating (12/08/2003): 21.85
Recent price (06/22/2017): 60.97
Price change: +39.12
Dividends collected: 1.49

Gain/Loss over 6528 days: +40.61 +185.86% Annualized Gain/Loss: +10.39%
I think PVTB is overvalued. At $42, I place a strong sell and/or sell short rating on the stock. The recent secondary offering was accretive to tangible book value (it is now trading at 300% of tangible book value). However, it will be dilutive to earnings. In the most recent quarter, 50% of PVTB's pre-tax income was a result of the 7% annualized dividend yield on its FHLB of Chicago stock. PVTB owns just over $206 million of FHLB stock on which the FHLB of Chicago increased in the most recent quarter the dividend. I think the FHLB of Chicago is a risky investment...that is another story, but they are trying to copy the Fannie model. PVTB will probably have a decent Q4 earnings number but into next year, I don't see much potential for earnings growth. They claim to be a "private bank", but only about 8% of revenue is coming from the asset management business. Additionally, PVTB only gets about 0.50% average fee on the assets they manage (they only manage aboiut about $1.3 billion, of which $543 million was acquired via the buyout of Lodestar last year). Think this one through carefully before buying and/or holding...they have benefited significantly from all of the commerical real estate loans they have originated in the last year as interest rates were declining. Now that we are in a stable/slightly higher interest rate environoment, they aren't just going to be able to go out and grab loan production (remember, they have been getting origination fees while their loan portfolio has nearly doubled in the last nine quarters). I would cover this one around $36 per share.

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

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-- SERC --
SERC Jan. 17 2003, 12:29 AM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
SERC performance:
Price near date of rating (01/17/2003): 16.25
Recent price (07/01/2009): 27.96

Gain/Loss over 6852 days: +11.71 +72.06% Annualized Gain/Loss: +3.84%
One of the most inexpensive MHCs remaining. Trades at 65% of tangible book if you assume a 2nd step offering to depositors priced at 85% of book. Located in one of the best market areas in the US. If they complete a second step conversion Banknorth would probably buy them three years following the conversion. Currently trading $16.00-$16.50 has 50% upside.

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-- SYNF --
SYNF Jul. 7 2003, 8:23 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 31 2003, 07:33 AM ET
by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (07/07/2003): 5.44
Price near end of rating (07/31/2003): 7.08

Gain/Loss over 24 days: +1.64 +30.15% Annualized Gain/Loss: +458.53%
Currently trading at about 85% of fully converted book if you assume if a second step is completed at a price equal to 90% of fully converted book to depositors. Was a credit union converted to mutual bank then converted to a stock MHC. Smart move by management as they will have a bigger payday because of forming the MHC structure (since the second step offering will be at a price/book which is much higher than the original offering). COO worked for a mutual that converted and then sold to Dime. I think he is in this one for the money--2nd step, deploy the capital, then sell to another bank/thrift. They are growing rapidly (probably too fast to be making good loans in this market) and are going to need additional capital within the next year or so if they keep up this growth rate. In today's market it would trade up to 110%-120% of book value on a second step conversion. Therefore, I think it has 30% upside potential in the next year.

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Currently: 
 2 said yes (of 5 -- 40.00%)

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SYNF Jul. 31 2003, 07:33 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 31 2003, 07:36 AM ET
by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Hold
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (07/31/2003): 7.08
Price near end of rating (07/31/2003): 7.08

Gain/Loss over 0 days: 0.00 0.00%
Currently trading at about 85% of fully converted book if you assume if a second step is completed at a price equal to 90% of fully converted book to depositors. Was a credit union converted to mutual bank then converted to a stock MHC. Smart move by management as they will have a bigger payday because of forming the MHC structure (since the second step offering will be at a price/book which is much higher than the original offering). COO worked for a mutual that converted and then sold to Dime. I think he is in this one for the money--2nd step, deploy the capital, then sell to another bank/thrift. They are growing rapidly (probably too fast to be making good loans in this market) and are going to need additional capital within the next year or so if they keep up this growth rate. In today's market it would trade up to 110%-120% of book value on a second step conversion. Therefore, I think it has 30% upside potential in the next year.

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Currently: 
 2 said yes (of 5 -- 40.00%)

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SYNF Jul. 31 2003, 07:36 AM ET by elevenwall (view profile) rating: Hold
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (07/31/2003): 7.08
Recent price (10/05/2007): 15.22
Price change: +8.14
Dividends collected: 0.68

Gain/Loss over 6658 days: +8.82 +124.58% Annualized Gain/Loss: +6.83%
7/31/03

Second step announced...worth holding if you own but wouldn't take a new positoin now.

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7/8/03


Currently trading at about 85% of fully converted book if you assume if a second step is completed at a price equal to 90% of fully converted book to depositors. Was a credit union converted to mutual bank then converted to a stock MHC. Smart move by management as they will have a bigger payday because of forming the MHC structure (since the second step offering will be at a price/book which is much higher than the original offering). COO worked for a mutual that converted and then sold to Dime. I think he is in this one for the money--2nd step, deploy the capital, then sell to another bank/thrift. They are growing rapidly (probably too fast to be making good loans in this market) and are going to need additional capital within the next year or so if they keep up this growth rate. In today's market it would trade up to 110%-120% of book value on a second step conversion. Therefore, I think it has 30% upside potential in the next year.

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Currently: 
 2 said yes (of 5 -- 40.00%)

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