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These ratings are posted by site users; this content is not intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com

Average returns on scuttlebut's ratings:

Rating Avg. Return Annualized Key:
- : rated buy, stock went down
+ : rated sell, stock went up
+/- : rated hold
+ : rated buy, stock went up
- : rated sell, stock went down
strong buy +13.52%(over an avg. of 1137.54 days) +4.34%
buy +3.35%(over an avg. of 497.15 days) +2.46%
hold +13.25%(over an avg. of 705.38 days) +6.86%
sell +32.70%(over an avg. of 1110.67 days) +10.75%
strong sell -4.80%(over an avg. of 1022.20 days) -1.71%


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-- ACAS --
ACAS Dec. 15 2002, 12:11 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jan. 29 2003, 12:17 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (12/16/2002): 21.72
Price near end of rating (01/29/2003): 22.43
Price change: +0.71
Dividends collected: 0.02

Gain/Loss over 45 days: +0.73 +3.36% Annualized Gain/Loss: +27.25%
This stock is a bet on lots of things going well, while the party stops when just a few things go poorly. Do not confuse dividends with the proceeds of corporate rape. Investors are not really getting dividends but the tribute that ACAS extorts from its portfolio companies. They need to find new investments all the time to cover up their inevitable failures. The few good investments have a heavy burden of covering the so-called dividends. The ACAS "dividend" is as far from a sure thing as you can get. The high yield is no surprise.

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS Jan. 29 2003, 12:17 PM ET
Rating changed on
May. 26 2003, 9:41 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (01/29/2003): 22.43
Price near end of rating (05/27/2003): 26.69
Price change: +4.26
Dividends collected: 0.67

Gain/Loss over 116 days: +4.93 +21.98% Annualized Gain/Loss: +69.16%
Taking a longer view, this situation is probably not as bad as the shorts think it is. First, the company is pretty spread out, thus mitigating the risk of serious disappointment. They have had just a few failures, and absorbed the losses without consequence. Most of the investments are mature companies, with reliable cash flows. Second, management has a strong incentive to perform, as their compensation is subordinate to the dividend. They actively participate in board decisions of their companies, thus are in a position to effect necessary changes. The concerns continue to be the obligation of the companies to funnel susbstantial cash upstream plus the PIK nature of the interest income, which means that dividends are being paid out of non-cash income.

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS May. 26 2003, 9:41 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 5 2003, 11:45 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (05/27/2003): 26.69
Price near end of rating (07/07/2003): 27.55
Price change: +0.86
Dividends collected: 0.68

Gain/Loss over 40 days: +1.54 +5.77% Annualized Gain/Loss: +52.65%
The new tax bill won't be good for investors in ACAS and other BDC's. Investors won't get the same tax break versus stocks like banks and utilities. ACAS dividends will be taxed at the old rate. Plus, stock has been on a tare, and has discounted for now what is but a modest improvement in portfolio performance. Cash flow continues to be weak. Time to take profits.

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS Jul. 5 2003, 11:45 AM ET
Rating changed on
Aug. 17 2003, 11:58 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (07/07/2003): 27.55
Price near end of rating (08/18/2003): 23.08

Gain/Loss over 43 days: -4.47 -16.23% Annualized Gain/Loss: -137.77%
Stock has dropped since my sell recommendation, and is now too cheap to ignore. A better economy should help keep this juggling act aloft. I still don't like its unsatisfactory cash flow, but its dividend should attract more buyers at these levels..

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS Aug. 17 2003, 11:58 AM ET
Rating changed on
Apr. 9 2004, 10:02 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (08/18/2003): 23.08
Price near end of rating (04/12/2004): 30.88
Price change: +7.80
Dividends collected: 2.14

Gain/Loss over 236 days: +9.94 +43.07% Annualized Gain/Loss: +66.61%
We are being given a rare oportunity here. Company's asset base will benefit from economic improvement. But stock is under pressure since managemnt disclosed the existence of a routine SEC inquiry. This, in my opinion, is a non-event. Insiders continue to buy shares. Admittedly, this company would qualify as a world-class juggling act, but it has remainbed aloft through some very tough times. I still don't like its unsatisfactory cash flow, but its dividend should attract more buyers at these levels..

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS Apr. 9 2004, 10:02 PM ET
Rating changed on
May. 13 2004, 11:45 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (04/12/2004): 30.88
Price near end of rating (05/13/2004): 26.38

Gain/Loss over 34 days: -4.50 -14.57% Annualized Gain/Loss: -156.41%
Stock is under pressure. Don't know why. This company would qualify as a world-class juggling act, but it has remainbed aloft through some very tough times. I still don't like its unsatisfactory cash flow. Has suffered periodic sinking spells. Action has been weak enought to lift my buy rating at this time. Will keep an eye on it for a possible downgrade..

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS May. 13 2004, 11:45 PM ET
Rating changed on
Sep. 11 2004, 11:55 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (05/13/2004): 26.38
Price near end of rating (09/13/2004): 32.02
Price change: +5.64
Dividends collected: 1.42

Gain/Loss over 121 days: +7.06 +26.76% Annualized Gain/Loss: +80.72%
I've had this as a hold for the past month, with the stock 3 points higher. Now, they continue to defy gravity and are deemed worthy of another underwritten offering, so they can pay the dividend. Amazing! But you can't argue with success. With the economy improving, ACAS has an opportunity to clean up its act once and for all and raise some legitimate cash, either by selling some winners or by harvesting some dividends from below. The financial stocks have all taken a big hit, time now to consolidate. This number will have an easier time transitioning to a higher rate environment than most thrifts, so its stock ought to recover first.

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ACAS Sep. 11 2004, 11:55 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jan. 2 2005, 11:47 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (09/13/2004): 32.02
Price near end of rating (01/03/2005): 32.96
Price change: +0.94
Dividends collected: 0.79

Gain/Loss over 113 days: +1.73 +5.40% Annualized Gain/Loss: +17.44%
Reverting to a hold, as the stock is in new high territory and is in the market for yet another new round of fundraising. This offering is unusual because most of the issue will be in the form of a forward sales contract with the underwriters. The underwriters will sell shares short to the public, and subsequently cover with new shares purchased at the same price from the issuer. It looks like a good deal for the underwriters as well as the issuer, who wins no matter what happens to the price during the term of the contract. If it is so good for them it must be not so good for the customer. Sounds like 2 hedgers against 1 hedgee. Let this one play out.

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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ACAS Jan. 2 2005, 11:47 AM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
ACAS performance:
Price near date of rating (01/03/2005): 32.96
Recent price (01/03/2017): 17.99
Price change: -14.97
Dividends collected: 14.29

Gain/Loss over 4462 days: -0.68 -2.06% Annualized Gain/Loss: -0.17%
Stock is up a bit after my change to hold from buy. But, price is more vulnerable to disappointments and other kinds of bad news, like the criminal investigation of its brother BDC, Allied Capital. The last fundraising, which included a forward sales contract, looks a bit too good a deal for the underwriters and the issuer, who win no matter what happens to the price during the term of the contract. If it is so good for them it must be not so good for the stockholder (stuckholder?). Sounds like 2 hedgers against 1 hedgee. Let this go.

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 3 said yes (of 4 -- 75.00%)

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-- BANR --
BANR Dec. 15 2002, 12:15 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jun. 21 2003, 1:47 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
BANR performance:
Price near date of rating (12/16/2002): 18.80
Price near end of rating (06/23/2003): 19.90
Price change: +1.10
Dividends collected: 0.3

Gain/Loss over 187 days: +1.40 +7.45% Annualized Gain/Loss: +14.54%
Company has been victimized several times by employee misadventure, which is not surprising considering the company's torrid appetite for growth. They are a weak competitor in many markets. Too many markets, in fact, for a company of this size. They should have stayed at home.

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 2 said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)

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BANR Jun. 21 2003, 1:47 PM ET
Rating changed on
Nov. 28 2004, 11:30 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
BANR performance:
Price near date of rating (06/23/2003): 19.90
Price near end of rating (11/29/2004): 33.62
Price change: +13.72
Dividends collected: 0.94

Gain/Loss over 526 days: +14.66 +73.67% Annualized Gain/Loss: +51.12%
Stock collapsed after I rated it a sell, then has rebounded with rest of market. Rising tide lifts all ships. Assuming asset quality remains stable, stock should enjoy market performance. BUT, Company has been victimized several times by employee misadventure, which is not surprising considering the company's torrid appetite for growth. They are a weak competitor in many markets. Too many markets, in fact, for a company of this size. They should have stayed at home. Hold rating is a WEAK hold!

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BANR Nov. 28 2004, 11:30 AM ET
Rating changed on
Dec. 15 2007, 10:03 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
BANR performance:
Price near date of rating (11/29/2004): 33.62
Price near end of rating (12/17/2007): 27.38
Price change: -6.24
Dividends collected: 2.16

Gain/Loss over 1112 days: -4.08 -12.14% Annualized Gain/Loss: -3.98%
In July of 2003, I wrote, "Company has been victimized several times by employee misadventure, which is not surprising considering the Company's torrid appetite for growth. They are a weak competitor in many markets. Too many markets, in fact, for a company of this size. They should have stayed at home." Surprise!!! They apparently were listening and have since stayed away from the acquisition route, preferring to grow organically, building their base in what has been a lackluster economic environment in the Pacific Northwest. Things have turned up in recent months in their area, leading me to think this stock will do well, playing catch-up with their peers. Buy rating is based on fact that stock is at new highs, and may rest awhile. But the next big move should be to the upside from here.

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BANR Dec. 15 2007, 10:03 AM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
BANR performance:
Price near date of rating (12/17/2007): 27.38
Recent price (03/22/2017): 53.89
Price change: +26.51
Dividends collected: 3.72

Gain/Loss over 3385 days: +30.23 +110.41% Annualized Gain/Loss: +11.91%
They have stayed away from the acquisition route, preferring to grow organically, building their base in what has been a reasonably good economic environment in the Pacific Northwest. But things have begun to sour in recent months in their area, leading me to think this stock will do no better than its peers. Not enough business in metropolitan centers to attract much of a premium bid, compared to other buyout candidates.

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-- BCSB --
BCSB Dec. 15 2002, 12:18 PM ET
Rating changed on
Mar. 22 2003, 5:52 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (12/16/2002): 12.98
Price near end of rating (03/24/2003): 13.43
Price change: +0.45
Dividends collected: 0.125

Gain/Loss over 97 days: +0.57 +4.43% Annualized Gain/Loss: +16.67%
Management has been steadfast in growing slowly, using its capital to build de novo branches and make a small but significant acquisition in a neighboring market. Look for better numbers ahead, justifying a second step conversion or a take-out at a premium price.

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 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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BCSB Mar. 22 2003, 5:52 PM ET
Rating changed on
Apr. 30 2003, 09:50 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (03/24/2003): 13.43
Price near end of rating (04/30/2003): 15.25
Price change: +1.82
Dividends collected: 0.125

Gain/Loss over 38 days: +1.95 +14.48% Annualized Gain/Loss: +139.08%
The better numbers that I forecast have started, with a doubling of earnings year-over-year. Company has an edge in developing new market, Harford County, just northeast of Baltimore. Look for several de novo branches there, in strip centers being built to serve the new homes going up. Management has been steadfast in growing slowly, using its capital to build de novo branches and make a small but significant acquisition in a neighboring market. Look for a speed up in growth ahead, justifying a second step conversion or a take-out at a premium price.

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 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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BCSB Apr. 30 2003, 09:50 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jun. 1 2003, 1:50 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (04/30/2003): 15.25
Price near end of rating (06/02/2003): 16.00

Gain/Loss over 32 days: +0.75 +4.92% Annualized Gain/Loss: +56.12%
Lowering my rating to buy, based on price. Stock closing in on its adjusted book value. The better numbers that I had previously forecast have continued, with a doubling of earnings year-over-year. Company has an edge in developing new market, Harford County, just northeast of Baltimore. Look for several de novo branches there, in strip centers being built to serve the new homes going up. Management has been steadfast in growing slowly, using its capital to build de novo branches and make a small but significant acquisition in a neighboring market. Look for a speed up in growth ahead, justifying a second step conversion or a take-out at a premium price.

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 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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BCSB Jun. 1 2003, 1:50 PM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:38 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (06/02/2003): 16.00
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 8.00
Price change: -8.00
Dividends collected: 1.75

Gain/Loss over 1584 days: -6.25 -39.06% Annualized Gain/Loss: -9.00%
Lowering my rating to hold, based on price. Stock closing in on its adjusted book value. The better numbers that I had previously forecast have continued, with a doubling of earnings year-over-year. Company has an edge in developing new market, Harford County, just northeast of Baltimore. Look for several de novo branches there, in strip centers being built to serve the new homes going up. Management has been steadfast in growing slowly, using its capital to build de novo branches and make a small but significant acquisition in a neighboring market. Look for a speed up in growth ahead, justifying a second step conversion. I would wait for the second-step before buying.

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BCSB Oct. 2 2007, 10:38 PM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
BCSB performance:
Price near date of rating (10/02/2007): 8.00
Recent price (02/14/2014): 24.68

Gain/Loss over 3460 days: +16.68 +208.50% Annualized Gain/Loss: +21.99%
Second step conversion will be a struggle, and just may require an infusion of funds from a private party to save it, albeit it at a lower price, dragging everyone down. Not a pretty picture. Even if it survives, asset opportunities are uninspiring as the economy slips into recession.

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 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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-- CBH --
CBH Sep. 13 2005, 9:12 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:41 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
CBH performance:
Price near date of rating (09/13/2005): 31.16
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 39.47
Price change: +8.31
Dividends collected: 0.98

Gain/Loss over 749 days: +9.29 +29.81% Annualized Gain/Loss: +14.53%
They telegraphed their disappointing news a few weeks ago when they said they wouldn't be opening as many branches as they had planned this quarter. Then, they dropped the other shoe by actually announcing they would miss their expected earnings this quarter. I don't know what else is needed to convince investors that the game is over for these guys. Bad news usually is followed by more bad news. With institutions still over-invested in financials and under-invested in energy and technology stocks, it is clear that the upside is extremely limited in financials in general and non-existent in growth-stock pretenders like Commerce.

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 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

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-- DCOM --
DCOM Nov. 26 2004, 7:19 PM ET
Rating changed on
Nov. 29 2004, 10:46 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
DCOM performance:
Price near date of rating (11/26/2004): 17.87
Price near end of rating (11/29/2004): 18.00

Gain/Loss over 3 days: +0.13 +0.73% Annualized Gain/Loss: +88.82%
One of the unsung heroes of the NYC market, this number has lagged on the upside, yet has been consistent with dividend increases. Its forte is multi-family lending, similar to NYB. With NYB suffering from management problems, lookers might finally notice DCOM as a suitable alternative. The multi-family lending market is likely to get a boost from the expiration of tas abatements, which will force higher rents or condo conversions; either way, asset values will move up smartly. Good market for transactions and refinancings. Good market for DCOM.

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 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

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DCOM Nov. 29 2004, 10:46 AM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:39 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
DCOM performance:
Price near date of rating (11/29/2004): 18.00
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 15.34
Price change: -2.66
Dividends collected: 1.54

Gain/Loss over 1036 days: -1.12 -6.22% Annualized Gain/Loss: -2.19%
One of the unsung heroes of the NYC market, this number has lagged on the upside, yet has been consistent with dividend increases. Its forte is multi-family lending, similar to NYB. With NYB suffering from management problems, lookers might finally notice DCOM as a suitable alternative. The multi-family lending market is likely to get a boost from the expiration of tas abatements, which will force higher rents or condo conversions; either way, asset values will move up smartly. Good market for transactions and refinancings. Good market for DCOM.

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-- FFNM --
FFNM May. 7 2005, 11:28 AM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 7 2007, 06:50 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
FFNM performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2005): 8.50
Price near end of rating (10/08/2007): 8.04
Price change: -0.46
Dividends collected: 0.5

Gain/Loss over 883 days: +0.04 +0.47% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.19%
Since second-steps should make companies stronger, not weaker, there is only one explanation for this stock trading at a 15% discount from the offering price, and that is that the sellers are stupid. How much lower can this stock go, supported by a 4.5%+ yield? I am a buyer right here. Show me your stock!

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 1 said yes (of 2 -- 50.00%)

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FFNM Oct. 7 2007, 06:50 AM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
FFNM performance:
Price near date of rating (10/08/2007): 8.04
Recent price (03/22/2017): 7.94
Price change: -0.10
Dividends collected: 0.56

Gain/Loss over 3455 days: +0.46 +5.72% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.60%
This is a fully-converted bank, yet It is cheaper than almost all of the MHC's on a book value basis. Its earnings are down with the rest of the group, but on a relative value basis it should be bought. It has been a long struggle with this stock. Total lack of interest. Patience will pay off.

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-- FNBC --
FNBC Aug. 27 2016, 1:50 PM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 26 2016, 11:21 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
FNBC performance:
Price near date of rating (08/29/2016): 12.88
Price near end of rating (10/26/2016): 6.30

Gain/Loss over 60 days: -6.58 -51.09% Annualized Gain/Loss: -310.80%
Bank was formed in 2006 by former execs from National Bank of Commerce (after it was absorbed by what is now Chase). Went public in 2013 at 26. Has grown by acquisitions and enterprising commercial lending into a nearly $5 billion bank today and is the largest bank headquartered in New Orleans. Had a bad time getting its 2015 10k filed due to accounting issues and this controversy trashed the stock down to 11+. Not out of the woods yet as bad energy loans and losses from recent floods in its market could bring more bad news. Activists looking for sizable opportunities ought to be able to pick up some shares in the slosh, and with most shareholders losing money they ought to be able to improve the governance of this bank. Rebuilding the economy following the floods presents lots of lending opportunities especially for a big local bank. No dividend is likely until bank improves its capital position; that is why it is a buy instead of a strong buy.

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 6 said yes (of 6 -- 100.00%)

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FNBC Oct. 26 2016, 11:21 AM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
FNBC performance:
Price near date of rating (10/26/2016): 6.30
Recent price (03/22/2017): 3.75

Gain/Loss over 148 days: -2.55 -40.48% Annualized Gain/Loss: -99.83%
Have to reduce rating to HOLD. Big question now is level of intransigence of regulators that slapped restrictions on Company months after 2015 10K was filed. How long will it take and what are the criteria for the restrictions to be lifted? One of my cardinal investing rules is to never bet against the government, which has unlimited funds to pursue its agenda and which never admits to an error. If Company can develop rational capital plan, will regulators relent, or waffle in indecisiveness as the February coupon payment date on its subordinated debt approaches?

Bank was formed in 2006 by former execs from National Bank of Commerce (after it was absorbed by what is now Chase). Went public in 2013 at 26. Has grown by acquisitions and enterprising commercial lending into a nearly $5 billion bank today and is the largest bank headquartered in New Orleans. Had a bad time getting its 2015 10k filed due to accounting issues and this controversy trashed the stock down to 11+. (Now 6+). (Now up to date on all filings, and about to name new auditor).

Not out of the woods yet as bad energy loans and losses from recent floods in its market could bring more bad news.

Activists looking for sizable opportunities ought to be able to pick up some shares in the slosh, and with most shareholders losing money they ought to be able to improve the governance of this bank. Rebuilding the economy following the floods presents lots of lending opportunities especially for a big local bank.

No dividend is likely, now and for a very long time.

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-- FRE --
FRE Jun. 9 2003, 10:46 AM ET
Rating changed on
Nov. 21 2005, 9:17 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
FRE performance:
Price near date of rating (06/09/2003): 50.26
Price near end of rating (11/21/2005): 62.45
Price change: +12.19
Dividends collected: 3.03

Gain/Loss over 896 days: +15.22 +30.28% Annualized Gain/Loss: +12.34%
Looks like they found a few cockroaches. And, you know, where there are a few cockroaches, there's bound to be many. Freddie sits atop a mountain of derivatives. Who said, "derivatives are like weapons of mass destruction?" I don't know about that, but I do believe that what we are seeing today is just the beginning of a long and politically-charged expose into the very heart of Freddie's balance sheet and accounting practices. Where it ends I don't know, but I wouldn't be long a lot of Freddie in here.

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FRE Nov. 21 2005, 9:17 PM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:41 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
FRE performance:
Price near date of rating (11/21/2005): 62.45
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 62.04
Price change: -0.41
Dividends collected: 3.88

Gain/Loss over 679 days: +3.47 +5.56% Annualized Gain/Loss: +2.99%
I'll admit I was a bit premature in recommending a sale of this stock 2 years ago, as it benefitted from several major attempts to clean up its act, including a change of top management. But, the cockroaches are still there, and they will emerge again. Freddie still sits atop a mountain of derivatives, also known as "weapons of mass destruction." Accounting for derivatives will continue as a major issue, and a major embarrassment for Freddie. It is also vulnerable to new competitors, who have moved boldly into the fray while Freddie has been scrambling. Its friends in Congress have also become vulnerable, as complaints grow about the cost of government support. When you benefactor stops benefacting, you're in for some hurting!

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FRE Oct. 2 2007, 10:41 PM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
FRE performance:
Price near date of rating (10/02/2007): 62.04
Recent price (07/07/2010): 0.34
Price change: -61.70
Dividends collected: 0.75

Gain/Loss over 3460 days: -60.95 -98.24% Annualized Gain/Loss: -10.36%
I'll admit I was a bit premature in recommending a sale of this stock 2 years ago, as it benefitted from several major attempts to clean up its act, including a change of top management. But, the cockroaches are still there, and they will emerge again. Freddie still sits atop a mountain of derivatives, also known as "weapons of mass destruction." Accounting for derivatives will continue as a major issue, and a major embarrassment for Freddie. It is also vulnerable to new competitors, who have moved boldly into the fray while Freddie has been scrambling. Its friends in Congress have also become vulnerable, as complaints grow about the cost of government support. When you benefactor stops benefacting, you're in for some hurting!

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-- HCBK --
HCBK Jun. 4 2005, 10:33 AM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
HCBK performance:
Price near date of rating (06/06/2005): 10.84
Recent price (10/30/2015): 10.12
Price change: -0.72
Dividends collected: 3.56

Gain/Loss over 4310 days: +2.84 +26.20% Annualized Gain/Loss: +2.22%
Somebody say "Golden East?" I say, "Better than Golden West!" Better dividend, better P/BV ratio, better Efficiency Ratio, better growth opportunities, better takeover possibility. Plus, HCBK stock has been a laggard for 2 years. With new stock out there, it qualifies for more institutional portfolios and is likely to be included in more stock indices.

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-- ICBC --
ICBC Apr. 2 2003, 09:40 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 26 2003, 11:40 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
ICBC performance:
Price near date of rating (04/02/2003): 26.95
Price near end of rating (07/28/2003): 32.53
Price change: +5.58
Dividends collected: 0.16

Gain/Loss over 114 days: +5.74 +21.30% Annualized Gain/Loss: +68.20%
Have you ever seen a more beautiful chart? It has been trying forever to close the gap from last September. A successful move should bring it to the $30 level is a jiffy. They seem to be following the crowd in opening new branches. If they don't get the results they expect, I think the board will start looking more favorably on consolidating with a larger, better managed competitor. Resembles Haven. Disclosure: I have owned the stock since the get go.

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ICBC Jul. 26 2003, 11:40 PM ET
Rating changed on
Dec. 13 2003, 5:02 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
ICBC performance:
Price near date of rating (07/28/2003): 32.53
Price near end of rating (12/15/2003): 34.55
Price change: +2.02
Dividends collected: 0.37

Gain/Loss over 140 days: +2.39 +7.35% Annualized Gain/Loss: +19.16%
Stock has reached my target of 30+ and now must consolidate. They seem to be following the crowd in opening new branches. If they don't get the results they expect, I think the board will start looking more favorably on consolidating with a larger, better managed competitor. Resembles Haven. Disclosure: I have owned the stock since the get go.

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ICBC Dec. 13 2003, 5:02 PM ET
Rating changed on
May. 15 2004, 11:17 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
ICBC performance:
Price near date of rating (12/15/2003): 34.55
Price near end of rating (05/17/2004): 35.38
Price change: +0.83
Dividends collected: 0.45

Gain/Loss over 153 days: +1.28 +3.70% Annualized Gain/Loss: +8.83%
Company has announced it will buy SIB, which has had its problems with mortgages, plus another big mortgage wholesale operation to add to its core business strategy. This seems to me to be the wrong time to bulk up in the mortgage business. I had hoped ICBC would look to consolidate with a larger NYC thrift, rather than go the acquisition route. They are adding a lot of risk, too, by opening new branches in the high rent districts of Manhattan. Midtown is becoming a competitive battlefield, among Wamu, North Fork, Commerce, and now Wachovia, Valley National and Fleet rushing in with ICBC. I think they will all suffer bruises, but ICBC will suffer most.

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ICBC May. 15 2004, 11:17 AM ET
Rating changed on
Aug. 31 2004, 07:14 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
ICBC performance:
Price near date of rating (05/17/2004): 35.38
Price near end of rating (08/31/2004): 39.24
Price change: +3.86
Dividends collected: 0.24

Gain/Loss over 108 days: +4.10 +11.59% Annualized Gain/Loss: +39.17%
It's time to start nibbling at the rubble. I picked this one because its stock price performance has surprised me. While I remain apprehensive about its de novo branching in Manhattan, its proven talent for absorbing acquisitions, while spreading its reach through Staten Island and into Northern New Jersey, places its franchise squarely in an attractive zone of opportunity. I suspect they are busily addressing their risk profile in the mortgage banking business, which should cushion much of the adverse consequences of the expected interest rate increases.

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ICBC Aug. 31 2004, 07:14 AM ET
Rating changed on
Oct. 30 2005, 9:18 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
ICBC performance:
Price near date of rating (08/31/2004): 39.24
Price near end of rating (10/31/2005): 39.55
Price change: +0.31
Dividends collected: 1.05

Gain/Loss over 425 days: +1.36 +3.47% Annualized Gain/Loss: +2.98%
In May I wrote "It's time to start nibbling at the rubble. I picked this one because its stock price performance has surprised me. While I remain apprehensive about its de novo branching in Manhattan, its proven talent for absorbing acquisitions, while spreading its reach through Staten Island and into Northern New Jersey, places its franchise squarely in an attractive zone of opportunity. I suspect they are busily addressing their risk profile in the mortgage banking business, which should cushion much of the adverse consequences of the expected interest rate increases." Wow!!! Look at what has happened. In an otherwise moribund market, this puppy looks ready to reach an all time high. If anything passes the smell test, this one does! Perfume!!!!

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ICBC Oct. 30 2005, 9:18 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:42 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
ICBC performance:
Price near date of rating (10/31/2005): 39.55
Price near end of rating (05/31/2006): 41.98
Price change: +2.43
Dividends collected: 0.54

Gain/Loss over 701 days: +2.97 +7.51% Annualized Gain/Loss: +3.91%
Sad to say, I rated this a strong buy in May 2004, and we are at the same price, despite a pending takeover. The spread to the $42 cash buyout may seem attractive to arbitrageurs, but there is risk that litigation against the acquiring company, Sovereign Bancorp, could delay, and even kill, the deal. I do take solace in the ICBC comment supporting the deal, that de novo branching in Manhattan turned out to be too expensive. Time to take the money. Plenty of cheap alternatives. (See my rating for DCOM).

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-- NYB --
NYB Jan. 29 2005, 12:03 PM ET by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
NYB performance:
Price near date of rating (01/31/2005): 17.83
Recent price (11/12/2012): 12.79
Price change: -5.04
Dividends collected: 8

Gain/Loss over 4435 days: +2.96 +16.60% Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.37%
This story is as good as ever, yet the stock is down some 50% from its high. Problem has been management has allowed itself to be misled by investment bankers into overfunding its balance sheet, then squandering the dough in ill-timed investments. They did this a few years back, then dug themselves out, rising to new heights of glory, only to do the dumb deed again in 2004. How many hits in the head with a 2x4 will it take to straighten these guys out? My guess is 2 is enough. Analysts look at this company and their models all scream "sell." My model screams "buy." This is a unique bank, with a dominant niche business that grows in correlation with NYC real estate values. The dividend exceeds 5%, and they raise it regularly.

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-- OCFC --
OCFC Apr. 4 2003, 4:06 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 26 2003, 11:45 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
OCFC performance:
Price near date of rating (04/04/2003): 21.36
Price near end of rating (07/28/2003): 24.83
Price change: +3.47
Dividends collected: 0.2

Gain/Loss over 112 days: +3.67 +17.18% Annualized Gain/Loss: +55.99%
Another beautiful chart! This puppy has withstood withering bouts of insider selling (albeit all option-related). Having owned the stock since Day 1, I have enjoyed numerous dividend increases and multiple stock splits. What prompts me to rate it a buy at this time is its recent price action during the unprecedented amount of stock being dumped into the market.

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OCFC Jul. 26 2003, 11:45 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:43 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
OCFC performance:
Price near date of rating (07/28/2003): 24.83
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 17.55
Price change: -7.28
Dividends collected: 3.4

Gain/Loss over 1529 days: -3.88 -15.63% Annualized Gain/Loss: -3.73%
Having owned the stock since Day 1, I have enjoyed numerous dividend increases and multiple stock splits. What prompts me to upgrade my rating to a strong buy at this time is its high level consolidation has positioned it for a leap to even higher ground as more investors discount the terrific dividend record of this excellently-managed thrift.

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-- PRTR --
PRTR Dec. 15 2002, 12:29 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jun. 21 2003, 1:51 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Price near end of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01

Gain/Loss over 187 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
I think (hope) all the bulls on this stock have it right. Seems like a lay up. But the lack of dissent among the raters is a bit unnerving.

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PRTR Jun. 21 2003, 1:51 PM ET
Rating changed on
Dec. 25 2003, 11:10 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Price near end of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01

Gain/Loss over 187 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
Must reduce to hold, based on price performance. Acquisitive nature of management calls for caution by investors. I still have my original shares, but have sold some added in aftermarket. The lack of dissent among the other raters is a bit unnerving.

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PRTR Dec. 25 2003, 11:10 AM ET
Rating changed on
May. 22 2004, 1:03 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Price near end of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01

Gain/Loss over 148 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
I'm glad I held on to my stock for the 2nd step announcement. The big move north of 30 makes this number awfully rich. While it may have a bright future, the stock will do no better than average pending its full conversion, and that won't happen for many months. Meanwhile, it is as vulnerable as others to the upcoming flattening of the yield curve. As a matter of relative value, PRTR is overpriced.

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PRTR May. 22 2004, 1:03 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jun. 5 2004, 12:46 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Price near end of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01

Gain/Loss over 14 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
Upgrading from Sell to Hold. Stock has discounted worst case, which is unlikely to occur. Second step conversion will be a challenge in this environment, and will probably hold to the flatline pending a better market for thrift stocks. Surprise will be better performance, not worse. Thus, okay to hold this stock, or use as source of funds for new deals.

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PRTR Jun. 5 2004, 12:46 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jun. 13 2004, 2:52 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Price near end of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01

Gain/Loss over 8 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
I'm going to stick my neck out on this one, by upgrading from hold to buy, at this moment, when the early checks have still not been cashed. Methinks it is either a do-over at lower levels of issuance, a do guarantee at the minimum, a takeover of BSBN without the second-step conversion or a cancellation of the takeover altogether. In any case, the stock works higher from here. Fewer shares outstanding=higher return on equity.

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PRTR Jun. 13 2004, 2:52 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:42 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
PRTR performance:
Price near date of rating (05/09/2007): 1.01
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 1.18

Gain/Loss over 1206 days: +0.17 +16.83% Annualized Gain/Loss: +5.09%
Upgrading again, this time to STRONG BUY. This deal will get done! Look for the announcement this week. By issuing the mid-point number of shares, the existing stockholders get a lot of assets without diluting their investment. This guy Sharp has a lot riding on this deal. He emerges as a major stockholder and a key executive in the asset generating part of the business, where his strength lies. The PRTR management team has done well on the deposit side, and they will continue in place. BSBN is a bargain buy for PRTR. It will become more of a commercial bank than a thrift, and enjoy the characteristic higher level of valuation.

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-- SYNF --
SYNF Dec. 23 2002, 4:56 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 8 2003, 10:28 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (01/06/2003): 4.57
Price near end of rating (07/08/2003): 5.40

Gain/Loss over 196 days: +0.83 +18.16% Annualized Gain/Loss: +33.82%
Notice they will not pay a dividend and will grow their assets by buying indirect auto loans. If you like incendiary devices, you could feel comfortable owning this stock. But rocketships are a bit too uncertain for me. If they could own only one stock, I doubt any of the respected raters would pick this one.

(Added 12/23/02: Did someone say "irrational exhuberance?" WFD is cheaper, safer and pays a dividend. Parabolic price movements cannot be sustained. Price is 17 as we speak.)

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SYNF Jul. 8 2003, 10:28 AM ET
Rating closed on
Aug. 29 2003, 12:46 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Sell
SYNF performance:
Price near date of rating (07/08/2003): 5.40
Price near end of rating (08/29/2003): 7.01

Gain/Loss over 52 days: +1.61 +29.81% Annualized Gain/Loss: +209.24%
I am raising my rating to a simple sell because generally improving economic conditions give the issuer a better chance of succeeding with its risky strategy. Absence of a dividend and leveraged growth by buying indirect auto loans is an incendiary formula. Rocketships like this are a bit too uncertain for me. If they could own only one stock, I doubt any of the respected raters would pick this one.

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-- TONE --
TONE Dec. 15 2002, 12:26 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jun. 21 2003, 1:53 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
TONE performance:
Price near date of rating (12/16/2002): 15.10
Price near end of rating (06/23/2003): 19.82

Gain/Loss over 187 days: +4.72 +31.26% Annualized Gain/Loss: +61.02%
Gathers deposits like a small bank, gathers assets like a big bank. Remember Bell Savings of Chicago? I think it lasted 3 years, then sold for nice premium.

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TONE Jun. 21 2003, 1:53 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 26 2003, 11:48 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
TONE performance:
Price near date of rating (06/23/2003): 19.82
Price near end of rating (07/28/2003): 23.37

Gain/Loss over 35 days: +3.55 +17.91% Annualized Gain/Loss: +186.78%
Happy with the gains since my original Strong Buy rating, but stock needs to consolidate here. Still a buy for long term. Gathers deposits like a small bank, gathers assets like a big bank. Remember Bell Savings of Chicago? I think it lasted 3 years, then sold for nice premium.

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TONE Jul. 26 2003, 11:48 PM ET
Rating changed on
Sep. 5 2007, 6:44 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
TONE performance:
Price near date of rating (07/28/2003): 23.37
Price near end of rating (09/05/2007): 22.59
Price change: -0.78
Dividends collected: 0.85

Gain/Loss over 1502 days: +0.07 +0.30% Annualized Gain/Loss: +0.07%
Happy with the gains since my original Strong Buy rating, but stock really needs to consolidate here. Still a buy for long term. Gathers deposits like a small bank, gathers assets like a big bank. Remember Bell Savings of Chicago? I think it lasted 3 years, then sold for nice premium. TONE has been out for a bit more than a year. Not enough time to warrant this much premium.

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TONE Sep. 5 2007, 6:44 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:43 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Sell
TONE performance:
Price near date of rating (09/05/2007): 22.59
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 27.19
Price change: +4.60
Dividends collected: 0.08

Gain/Loss over 27 days: +4.68 +20.72% Annualized Gain/Loss: +280.10%
This one is supposed to be bought by CSE. With both outfits in the real estate development/construction/residential mortgage/leveraged balance sheet soup, I doubt the deal gets done. TONE eventually joins the crowd at a discount to book value, which is of an uncertain amount pending the next audit.

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-- WFD --
WFD Jun. 21 2003, 1:56 PM ET
Rating changed on
Aug. 29 2003, 12:49 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
WFD performance:
Price near date of rating (06/23/2003): 5.64
Price near end of rating (08/29/2003): 6.72
Price change: +1.08
Dividends collected: 0.01524

Gain/Loss over 69 days: +1.10 +19.42% Annualized Gain/Loss: +102.73%
Despite impressive price performance, stock is still cheap relative to its peer group. Its marketplace is ripe for consolidation. While this may not happen right away for this MHC, the prospect should keep the demand for shares high.

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WFD Aug. 29 2003, 12:49 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 10 2004, 11:35 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
WFD performance:
Price near date of rating (08/29/2003): 6.72
Price near end of rating (07/12/2004): 6.16
Price change: -0.56
Dividends collected: 0.04572

Gain/Loss over 316 days: -0.51 -7.65% Annualized Gain/Loss: -8.84%
Company is signaling an early move to a second step conversion with the charter change that was just announced. But, by early I mean maybe in the 4th quarter of 2004. Price is discounting this now. Would like to see more generous dividend. That would get me to return my rating to a more positive buy.

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WFD Jul. 10 2004, 11:35 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 31 2005, 1:30 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
WFD performance:
Price near date of rating (07/12/2004): 6.16
Price near end of rating (08/01/2005): 7.77
Price change: +1.61
Dividends collected: 0.18283

Gain/Loss over 386 days: +1.79 +29.10% Annualized Gain/Loss: +27.52%
Stock has fallen 20% from its high, which was at parity with its pro forma fully converted book value. The drop is typical for the thrifts in our universe, but is unjustified since this company is really a commercial bank. About a year ago, they changed their charter to reflect this. I had been looking for a second step conversion in the 4th quarter of 2004. That may have been too optimistic. But I still say it will happen soon. When the market prices this number appropriately, a 30-50% upmove wouldn't be surprising.

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WFD Jul. 31 2005, 1:30 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:44 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
WFD performance:
Price near date of rating (08/01/2005): 7.77
Price near end of rating (10/02/2007): 9.96
Price change: +2.19
Dividends collected: 0.55711

Gain/Loss over 793 days: +2.75 +35.36% Annualized Gain/Loss: +16.28%
This is a perfect hold. Stock has recovered to its pro forma book value, and seems ripe for a second-step conversion. I am disappointed that its plan to build its commercial loan business has not met its original expectations. We may learn more if and when it files its second-step. For now, it is just a typical thrift, albeit with a commercial bank charter.

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-- WGBC --
WGBC Jan. 2 2003, 12:16 PM ET
Rating changed on
Feb. 9 2004, 4:52 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
WGBC performance:
Price near date of rating (01/02/2003): 13.80
Price near end of rating (02/09/2004): 18.12
Price change: +4.32
Dividends collected: 0.44

Gain/Loss over 403 days: +4.76 +34.49% Annualized Gain/Loss: +31.24%
These guys have come a long way since their initial offering, and have adopted a comprehensive business plan that has served them well in the last 2 years, leading up to and through the second step offering. Their goal is to become a billion dollar bank within the next year. They have received one takeover offer already, which they wisely rejected. There are likely to be others, at higher prices. Their business plan will tell them whether to accept or reject. Premium valuation is justified, in my opinion.

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WGBC Feb. 9 2004, 4:52 PM ET
Rating changed on
May. 30 2004, 10:14 AM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Hold
WGBC performance:
Price near date of rating (02/09/2004): 18.12
Price near end of rating (06/01/2004): 15.30
Price change: -2.82
Dividends collected: 0.1

Gain/Loss over 110 days: -2.72 -15.01% Annualized Gain/Loss: -49.81%
These guys have come a long way since their initial offering, and have adopted a comprehensive business plan that has served them well in the last 2 years, leading up to and through the second step offering. Their goal is to become a billion dollar bank within the next year. They have received one takeover offer already, which they wisely rejected. There are likely to be others, at higher prices. Their business plan will tell them whether to accept or reject. Premium valuation is justified, in my opinion.

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WGBC May. 30 2004, 10:14 AM ET
Rating changed on
Mar. 17 2005, 12:50 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Buy
WGBC performance:
Price near date of rating (06/01/2004): 15.30
Price near end of rating (03/17/2005): 16.91
Price change: +1.61
Dividends collected: 0.34

Gain/Loss over 291 days: +1.95 +12.75% Annualized Gain/Loss: +15.99%
Time for another upgrade. These guys are well positioned for higher interest rates, having managed their assets and liabilities conservatively. They have remained true to their business plan, and are now a billion dollar bank. The market will give this stock its due. A nibble here will pay off. Regular dividend increases, too.

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WGBC Mar. 17 2005, 12:50 PM ET
Rating closed on
Oct. 2 2007, 10:44 PM ET
by scuttlebut (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
WGBC performance:
Price near date of rating (03/17/2005): 16.91
Price near end of rating (09/21/2006): 15.59
Price change: -1.32
Dividends collected: 0.72

Gain/Loss over 928 days: -0.60 -3.55% Annualized Gain/Loss: -1.40%
Time for still another upgrade. The market seems to not like the fact that is is "buying" a very solid commercial bank in its very solid area. Fact is, the combined company will be managed by the management of the commercial bank, so who is really buying who? WGBC took the face-saving route and decided to go out as an acquirer rather than as a target. Didn't phase the bankers. They are getting a terrific franchise, that they will no doubt fold into their already successful bank. WGBC is a tremendous buy at the current level.

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