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These ratings are posted by site users; this content is not intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com

Average returns on thriftman's ratings:

Rating Avg. Return Annualized Key:
- : rated buy, stock went down
+ : rated sell, stock went up
+/- : rated hold
+ : rated buy, stock went up
- : rated sell, stock went down
strong buy +24.63%(over an avg. of 2958.60 days) +3.04%
buy -19.27%(over an avg. of 5123.33 days) -1.37%


Jump to rating for: CTZN   FNFG   MTXC   SFFS  

NOTE: areas highlighted in blue indicate that this user is sharing the highlighted information with their private group ONLY
-- CTZN --
CTZN Jan. 25 2003, 3:25 PM ET
Rating changed on
May. 6 2003, 12:44 AM ET
by thriftman (view profile) rating: Buy
CTZN performance:
Price near date of rating (01/27/2003): 19.40
Price near end of rating (05/06/2003): 20.65
Price change: +1.25
Dividends collected: 0.16

Gain/Loss over 100 days: +1.41 +7.27% Annualized Gain/Loss: +26.54%
At $19.75 close, stock is trading at about 112% of tangible book value. Third stock buyback (5%) announced in October 2002, which should continue to increase book value and earnings per share. Bank is continuing to grow earnings by opening up a couple of branches ('02 and '03), and hopefully fatten itself up for sale. CEO is a grey hair, and hopefully getting ready to retire. Dividend is $0.32 per share.

Some institutional ownership -about 40%.

Negatives: Management is weak. Corporate vision is to serve the community. I'd be okay with corporate vision if it was to serve community profitably. Volatility a little higher than what one would expect.

I'm a holder today.

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CTZN May. 6 2003, 12:44 AM ET by thriftman (view profile) rating: Buy
CTZN performance:
Price near date of rating (05/06/2003): 20.65
Recent price (10/05/2011): 0.01
Price change: -20.64
Dividends collected: 1.8

Gain/Loss over 7633 days: -18.84 -91.23% Annualized Gain/Loss: -4.36%
UPDATE (5/5/03): CTZN is lagging market as a more seasoned IPO and closed today at $20.93. Recent conversions, including smaller institutions such as SFFS, WAYN, NEBS, and PRTR are now trading at higher P/BV than CTZN. Market matters, which is a negative for CTZN, but stock buybacks to continue and in effect, and dividend should move up soon. Target 6-12 months assuming a 125% P/BV is about $24 for about a 20% return.

At $19.75 close, stock is trading at about 112% of tangible book value. Third stock buyback (5%) announced in October 2002, which should continue to increase book value and earnings per share. Bank is continuing to grow earnings by opening up a couple of branches ('02 and '03), and hopefully fatten itself up for sale. CEO is a grey hair, and hopefully getting ready to retire. Dividend is $0.32 per share.

Some institutional ownership -about 40%.

Negatives: Management is weak. Corporate vision is to serve the community. I'd be okay with corporate vision if it was to serve community profitably. Volatility a little higher than what one would expect.

I'm a holder today.

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-- FNFG --
FNFG May. 2 2003, 7:32 PM ET by thriftman (view profile) rating: Buy
FNFG performance:
Price near date of rating (05/02/2003): 12.55
Recent price (07/29/2016): 10.18
Price change: -2.37
Dividends collected: 5.65

Gain/Loss over 7637 days: +3.28 +26.14% Annualized Gain/Loss: +1.25%
I recently bought FNFG between $11.70 and $12.38 per share, and will add to that position if there is weakness over next couple of weeks. My view is that it came out high at 125-130% of tangible b.v. or 21x pe (same pe as PFS if my memory serves me correct) prior to the re-deployment of capital. Ryan fully priced deal as they did with HCBK, and HCBK has done great in after market trading. Since FNFG opened at $11-/share and change, SFFS has increased from $12 to $14, PFS has increased from $15.50 to over $17/share; WAYN has increased to over $13-/share, while FNFG has lagged. The market has improved and there has been the technical seasoning effect that ea. of these stocks have experienced.

I believe that long-term shareholder value will be created with highly respectable IRR (over 20% with little company downside risk - don't know what to say about equity market or sector risk). The $0.13 cash dividend should be raised with time, which clearly was Company's policy/strategy after initial conversion. 1Q 2000 quarterly was 6 cents (24 cent annual), which eventually increased to 11 cents (44 cent annual) by end of 2002.

FNFG is a $3B institution with $2.1B in depositor accounts and there just aren't that many thrift institutions with their equity float and scale. Western NY isn't a great place to be from a take-out perspective, but economy tends to not rise or fall as much (i.e., that part of the world is stable). The $20MM in allowance for LLs covers 1.7x the $11.7MM of non-accrual loans. Svgs accounts yielding 2.19% at 6/30/02, and I sure hope these guys have significantly lowered rates being paid. Even so with significant low cost checking and MMAs, cost of deposits was 2.5% 9 months ago and should be lower today.

CEO holds 718,478 shares or over 1% of Company, which should provide some motivation to get that stock price up with time. Usual combination of increasing cash dividends, stock repurchases, and earnings growth through re-deployment of capital to increase shareholder value. My 12 - 24 month target (unless sector multiples decline and not hearing a lot about sector risk at this time) is $18 to $22-/share. Target assumes that stock with further seasoning and increase in cash dividend from 1% to closer to 2% moves to 150% of tangible book value. Share repurchases to reduce shares outstanding and increase book value per share.

The above is simply my opinion for whatever it's worth, and my thought process as a recent buyer. Buyer beware and do your own research.

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-- MTXC --
MTXC Sep. 12 2004, 7:05 PM ET
Rating changed on
Sep. 30 2004, 8:34 PM ET
by thriftman (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MTXC performance:
Price near date of rating (09/13/2004): 13.50
Price near end of rating (09/30/2004): 12.96

Gain/Loss over 18 days: -0.54 -4.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: -81.11%
I have reduced my thrift and financial service holdings, but see strong value in MTXC. MTXC is trading at about $12.00 per share and I continue to buy on weakness. The Co. is trading at about 110% of TBV. Total assets is $1.7B and total deposits (excluding brokered CDs which is a reasonable amount - $800MM) is $828MM.

The Company based in Denver is in the midst of a restructuring (I'd say near completion, but we'll see) exiting out of state branches (NM and AZ) and the wholesale mortgage business (decided in 9/03). Mortgage service rights have been written down to reasonable level and other charges appear to be behind the company. The insiders owns 56% of the Company's outstanding stock and today do not spend a lot of time with investors. My expectation that this will start to change in 2005. No dividend today, which I think will also change in 2005.

My time horizon is longer term on this company, but my 12 month target is $16.00 to $18.00 per share.

When earnings catches up to balance sheet, I take comfort in the following balance sheet valuations:

150% of TBV $16.00/share
175% of TBV $18.00

12% of deposits (ex-brokered CDs) $15.00
14% of deposits (ex-brokered CDs) $17.50

Risk is liquidity as float is low, which may be a positive as stock starts to increase. Another risk is that you're buying a turnaround situation. As always, do your own due dilgence.

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Currently: 
 2 said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)

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MTXC Sep. 30 2004, 8:34 PM ET by thriftman (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
MTXC performance:
Price near date of rating (09/30/2004): 12.96
Recent price (09/06/2006): 22.43

Gain/Loss over 7120 days: +9.47 +73.07% Annualized Gain/Loss: +3.75%
Update:
Stock price has started to move-up closing at $12.96 last night, and hitting a 52-week high of $13.90 a couple of weeks ago upon announcement of the sale of their investment management business. I like this play more than mutual-to-stock conversions at this pricing with upside as outlined below.

Initial Rating:
I have reduced my thrift and financial service holdings, but see strong value in MTXC. MTXC is trading at about $12.00 per share and I continue to buy on weakness. The Co. is trading at about 110% of TBV. Total assets is $1.7B and total deposits (excluding brokered CDs which is a reasonable amount - $800MM) is $828MM.

The Company based in Denver is in the midst of a restructuring (I'd say near completion, but we'll see) exiting out of state branches (NM and AZ) and the wholesale mortgage business (decided in 9/03). Mortgage service rights have been written down to reasonable level and other charges appear to be behind the company. The insiders owns 56% of the Company's outstanding stock and today do not spend a lot of time with investors. My expectation that this will start to change in 2005. No dividend today, which I think will also change in 2005.

My time horizon is longer term on this company, but my 12 month target is $16.00 to $18.00 per share.

When earnings catches up to balance sheet, I take comfort in the following balance sheet valuations:

150% of TBV $16.00/share
175% of TBV $18.00

12% of deposits (ex-brokered CDs) $15.00
14% of deposits (ex-brokered CDs) $17.50

Risk is liquidity as float is low, which may be a positive as stock starts to increase. Another risk is that you're buying a turnaround situation. As always, do your own due dilgence.

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Currently: 
 2 said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)

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-- SFFS --
SFFS Apr. 12 2003, 11:14 AM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 26 2003, 2:58 PM ET
by thriftman (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
SFFS performance:
Price near date of rating (04/14/2003): 13.50
Price near end of rating (07/28/2003): 14.06
Price change: +0.56
Dividends collected: 0.05

Gain/Loss over 105 days: +0.61 +4.52% Annualized Gain/Loss: +15.71%
Company has outstanding branch locations in Westchester and Fairfield county. Each branch is profitable at this time (according to CFO) making for an outstanding acquisition target. CFO understands tools available (dividends, stock buybacks, etc.) to create shareholder value and was CFO of Middletown, which was acquired. Nine months before share repurchases begin.

Stock trading at fraction over tangible book value with potential to go to 135% of book value with their locations. With stock buybacks, seasoning of post-IPO stocks (call it technicals), slight increase in common dividend, deployment of reccently raised capita, and strong branch locations, SFFS should trade up to $16 to $18 in next 12 months. I expect a 5% rolling stock repurchase program over time. Over 2-3 years, strong downside protection given all the above, with upside potential to a
$25 to $30-/share. CEO is in mid-60s as is Board providing potential for sale in next 24-48 months, which would be additional upside.

Economy is doing fine in Westchester and residential mortgage originations still strong allowing them to deploy recently raised capital to improve profitability. No problems or inordinate amount of risk in loan portfolio (i.e., balance sheet is clean).

Risks are sector related: 1) The economy and residential real estate market in one of the most affluent parts of the country; 2) Multiples for entire sector contract; and 3) The U.S. experiences rising rates for technical reasons (funding of war efforts and deficit, lack of foreign investor confidence), while economy is stagnated.

I am a holder and wish I bought more at time of secondary.

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SFFS Jul. 26 2003, 2:58 PM ET
Rating changed on
Jul. 28 2003, 9:22 PM ET
by thriftman (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
SFFS performance:
Price near date of rating (07/28/2003): 14.06
Price near end of rating (07/28/2003): 14.06

Gain/Loss over 2 days: 0.00 0.00% Annualized Gain/Loss: 0.00%
Update (July 26, 2003):
I expect that Sound will start to increase following recent TONE and PRTR increases. SFFS is starting to get in to new territory closing over $14.00 during last week. There have been some recent stock ratings and polls discussing take over value. As a well run retail branch franchise with $600MM in depositor accounts, strong loan portfolio, located in Westchester and Fairfield counties (two of the more affluent areas of the country), I would anticipate an eventual take out at 2.5 times tangible book. This represents $27-/share at today's tangible BV. Today, SFFS trades at about 1.3 times TBV. It has a dividend yield of only 1.4% and payout ratio of 30% ($.05 dividend annualized / $0.67 EPS/Share for 12 mos. ended 3/03. This is a clear double with time (24 - 36 months).

Company will increase with time (I'd expect in 2nd half of their fiscal year), and begin stock buybacks on 12 month anniversary. CFO gets it and did same for Middletown eventually sold. High caliber individual relative to peer group. I continue to hold shares for long-term. I've differentiated Update from Original post (which I think should be the practice for stock ratings, so one can see the consistency in thinking and realization of estimates and views).

Original Post at time of 2nd Step:
Company has outstanding branch locations in Westchester and Fairfield county. Each branch is profitable at this time (according to CFO) making for an outstanding acquisition target. CFO understands tools available (dividends, stock buybacks, etc.) to create shareholder value and was CFO of Middletown, which was acquired. Nine months before share repurchases begin.

Stock trading at fraction over tangible book value with potential to go to 135% of book value with their locations. With stock buybacks, seasoning of post-IPO stocks (call it technicals), slight increase in common dividend, deployment of reccently raised capita, and strong branch locations, SFFS should trade up to $16 to $18 in next 12 months. I expect a 5% rolling stock repurchase program over time. Over 2-3 years, strong downside protection given all the above, with upside potential to a
$25 to $30-/share. CEO is in mid-60s as is Board providing potential for sale in next 24-48 months, which would be additional upside.

Economy is doing fine in Westchester and residential mortgage originations still strong allowing them to deploy recently raised capital to improve profitability. No problems or inordinate amount of risk in loan portfolio (i.e., balance sheet is clean).

Risks are sector related: 1) The economy and residential real estate market in one of the most affluent parts of the country; 2) Multiples for entire sector contract; and 3) The U.S. experiences rising rates for technical reasons (funding of war efforts and deficit, lack of foreign investor confidence), while economy is stagnated.

I am a holder and wish I bought more at time of secondary.

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SFFS Jul. 28 2003, 9:22 PM ET
Rating changed on
Sep. 28 2003, 9:20 PM ET
by thriftman (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
SFFS performance:
Price near date of rating (07/28/2003): 14.06
Price near end of rating (09/29/2003): 15.19
Price change: +1.13
Dividends collected: 0.05

Gain/Loss over 62 days: +1.18 +8.39% Annualized Gain/Loss: +49.39%
Update (July 28, 2003): Starting to buyback shares - up to 4% to start. New branch open in Stamford, CT - 11th branch.

Update (July 26, 2003):
I expect that Sound will start to increase following recent TONE and PRTR increases. SFFS is starting to get in to new territory closing over $14.00 during last week. There have been some recent stock ratings and polls discussing take over value. As a well run retail branch franchise with $600MM in depositor accounts, strong loan portfolio, located in Westchester and Fairfield counties (two of the more affluent areas of the country), I would anticipate an eventual take out at 2.5 times tangible book. This represents $27-/share at today's tangible BV. Today, SFFS trades at about 1.30 times BV, or 1.45 times TBV. It has a dividend yield of only 1.4% and payout ratio of 30% ($.05 dividend annualized / $0.67 EPS/Share for 12 mos. ended 3/03. This is a clear double with time (24 - 36 months).

Company will increase with time (I'd expect in 2nd half of their fiscal year), and begin stock buybacks on 12 month anniversary. CFO gets it and did same for Middletown eventually sold. High caliber individual relative to peer group. I continue to hold shares for long-term. I've differentiated Update from Original post (which I think should be the practice for stock ratings, so one can see the consistency in thinking and realization of estimates and views).

Original Post at time of 2nd Step:
Company has outstanding branch locations in Westchester and Fairfield county. Each branch is profitable at this time (according to CFO) making for an outstanding acquisition target. CFO understands tools available (dividends, stock buybacks, etc.) to create shareholder value and was CFO of Middletown, which was acquired. Nine months before share repurchases begin.

Stock trading at fraction over tangible book value with potential to go to 135% of book value with their locations. With stock buybacks, seasoning of post-IPO stocks (call it technicals), slight increase in common dividend, deployment of reccently raised capita, and strong branch locations, SFFS should trade up to $16 to $18 in next 12 months. I expect a 5% rolling stock repurchase program over time. Over 2-3 years, strong downside protection given all the above, with upside potential to a
$25 to $30-/share. CEO is in mid-60s as is Board providing potential for sale in next 24-48 months, which would be additional upside.

Economy is doing fine in Westchester and residential mortgage originations still strong allowing them to deploy recently raised capital to improve profitability. No problems or inordinate amount of risk in loan portfolio (i.e., balance sheet is clean).

Risks are sector related: 1) The economy and residential real estate market in one of the most affluent parts of the country; 2) Multiples for entire sector contract; and 3) The U.S. experiences rising rates for technical reasons (funding of war efforts and deficit, lack of foreign investor confidence), while economy is stagnated.

I am a holder and wish I bought more at time of secondary.

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SFFS Sep. 28 2003, 9:20 PM ET by thriftman (view profile) rating: Strong Buy
SFFS performance:
Price near date of rating (09/29/2003): 15.19
Recent price (07/17/2006): 20.72
Price change: +5.53
Dividends collected: 0.72

Gain/Loss over 7488 days: +6.25 +41.15% Annualized Gain/Loss: +2.01%
Update (Sept. 27, 2003): No change in fundamentals, but improved pricing at $15.00 per share. Easy trade and long-term hold. See comments below.

Update (July 28, 2003): Starting to buyback shares - up to 4% to start. New branch open in Stamford, CT - 11th branch.

Update (July 26, 2003):
I expect that Sound will start to increase following recent TONE and PRTR increases. SFFS is starting to get in to new territory closing over $14.00 during last week. There have been some recent stock ratings and polls discussing take over value. As a well run retail branch franchise with $600MM in depositor accounts, strong loan portfolio, located in Westchester and Fairfield counties (two of the more affluent areas of the country), I would anticipate an eventual take out at 2.5 times tangible book. This represents $27-/share at today's tangible BV. Today, SFFS trades at about 1.30 times BV, or 1.45 times TBV. It has a dividend yield of only 1.4% and payout ratio of 30% ($.05 dividend annualized / $0.67 EPS/Share for 12 mos. ended 3/03. This is a clear double with time (24 - 36 months).

Company will increase with time (I'd expect in 2nd half of their fiscal year), and begin stock buybacks on 12 month anniversary. CFO gets it and did same for Middletown eventually sold. High caliber individual relative to peer group. I continue to hold shares for long-term. I've differentiated Update from Original post (which I think should be the practice for stock ratings, so one can see the consistency in thinking and realization of estimates and views).

Original Post at time of 2nd Step:
Company has outstanding branch locations in Westchester and Fairfield county. Each branch is profitable at this time (according to CFO) making for an outstanding acquisition target. CFO understands tools available (dividends, stock buybacks, etc.) to create shareholder value and was CFO of Middletown, which was acquired. Nine months before share repurchases begin.

Stock trading at fraction over tangible book value with potential to go to 135% of book value with their locations. With stock buybacks, seasoning of post-IPO stocks (call it technicals), slight increase in common dividend, deployment of reccently raised capita, and strong branch locations, SFFS should trade up to $16 to $18 in next 12 months. I expect a 5% rolling stock repurchase program over time. Over 2-3 years, strong downside protection given all the above, with upside potential to a
$25 to $30-/share. CEO is in mid-60s as is Board providing potential for sale in next 24-48 months, which would be additional upside.

Economy is doing fine in Westchester and residential mortgage originations still strong allowing them to deploy recently raised capital to improve profitability. No problems or inordinate amount of risk in loan portfolio (i.e., balance sheet is clean).

Risks are sector related: 1) The economy and residential real estate market in one of the most affluent parts of the country; 2) Multiples for entire sector contract; and 3) The U.S. experiences rising rates for technical reasons (funding of war efforts and deficit, lack of foreign investor confidence), while economy is stagnated.

I am a holder and wish I bought more at time of secondary.

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