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Feb. 9 2005, 4:03 PM ET
Nearest price: 13.36 (02/09/05) |
by BEN (profile)
(all of BEN's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
(Previous rating: Buy,
on Sep. 15 2004, 08:54 AM ET)
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Jan. 19 2004, 10:17 AM ET
Nearest price: 15.56 (01/20/04) |
by cygnus (profile)
(all of cygnus's ratings) |
rating:
Buy |
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May. 4 2003, 10:59 PM ET
Nearest price: 12.70 (05/05/03) |
by persistent (profile)
(all of persistent's ratings) |
rating:
Buy |
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May. 2 2003, 7:32 PM ET
Nearest price: 12.55 (05/02/03) |
by thriftman (profile)
(all of thriftman's ratings) |
rating:
Buy |
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I recently bought FNFG between $11.70 and $12.38 per share, and will add to that position if there is weakness over next couple of weeks. My view is that it came out high at 125-130% of tangible b.v. or 21x pe (same pe as PFS if my memory serves me correct) prior to the re-deployment of capital. Ryan fully priced deal as they did with HCBK, and HCBK has done great in after market trading. Since FNFG opened at $11-/share and change, SFFS has increased from $12 to $14, PFS has increased from $15.50 to over $17/share; WAYN has increased to over $13-/share, while FNFG has lagged. The market has improved and there has been the technical seasoning effect that ea. of these stocks have experienced.
I believe that long-term shareholder value will be created with highly respectable IRR (over 20% with little company downside risk - don't know what to say about equity market or sector risk). The $0.13 cash dividend should be raised with time, which clearly was Company's policy/strategy after initial conversion. 1Q 2000 quarterly was 6 cents (24 cent annual), which eventually increased to 11 cents (44 cent annual) by end of 2002.
FNFG is a $3B institution with $2.1B in depositor accounts and there just aren't that many thrift institutions with their equity float and scale. Western NY isn't a great place to be from a take-out perspective, but economy tends to not rise or fall as much (i.e., that part of the world is stable). The $20MM in allowance for LLs covers 1.7x the $11.7MM of non-accrual loans. Svgs accounts yielding 2.19% at 6/30/02, and I sure hope these guys have significantly lowered rates being paid. Even so with significant low cost checking and MMAs, cost of deposits was 2.5% 9 months ago and should be lower today.
CEO holds 718,478 shares or over 1% of Company, which should provide some motivation to get that stock price up with time. Usual combination of increasing cash dividends, stock repurchases, and earnings growth through re-deployment of capital to increase shareholder value. My 12 - 24 month target (unless sector multiples decline and not hearing a lot about sector risk at this time) is $18 to $22-/share. Target assumes that stock with further seasoning and increase in cash dividend from 1% to closer to 2% moves to 150% of tangible book value. Share repurchases to reduce shares outstanding and increase book value per share.
The above is simply my opinion for whatever it's worth, and my thought process as a recent buyer. Buyer beware and do your own research.
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Jan. 31 2003, 8:19 PM ET
Nearest price: 11.60 (01/31/03) |
by convert (profile)
(all of convert's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jan. 23 2003, 08:36 AM ET)
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Jan. 22 2003, 8:21 PM ET
Nearest price: 11.06 (01/22/03) |
by golfnut (profile)
(all of golfnut's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jan. 8 2003, 7:08 PM ET)
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Jan. 7 2003, 6:02 PM ET
Nearest price: 10.44 (01/07/03) |
by ralphw (profile)
(all of ralphw's ratings) |
rating:
Buy |
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Jan. 7 2003, 4:53 PM ET
Nearest price: 10.44 (01/07/03) |
by samcarmat (profile)
(all of samcarmat's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
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