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Feb. 5 2004, 08:24 AM ET
Nearest price: 30.00 (05/21/13) |
by Tier1 (profile)
(all of Tier1's ratings) |
rating:
Hold |
(Previous rating: Hold,
on Feb. 5 2004, 08:23 AM ET)
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[ Comments shared with private group only ]
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Jul. 18 2003, 10:23 PM ET
Nearest price: 30.00 (05/21/13) |
by corvettekid (profile)
(all of corvettekid's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jul. 18 2003, 10:22 PM ET)
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Q2 2003 Update: You could say they missed by a penny, but estimates had been rising for weeks and months leading up to the quarter so that would be harsh. Pipeline is solid, company is less affected by refis than others, No-Doc continues to plug along, Alt-A is strong.
2 dividend boosts within 3 months (!) and continued strong buybacks. Stock is splitting, which could be the prelude to an accretive acquisition (Astoria? ICBC? DCOM? FFIC?). This company is a free cash flow machine.
TJ is on the horn saying he's not averse to selling, but wants to buy first and then sell. Either way, stock should move up.
Stock is still too cheap. It sold for 6X earnings in March 2000 and sells for 9X earnings now? Sorry, that can't be what they call a peak multiple.
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Q4/2002 UPDATE: GPT reported an outstanding quarter. The pipeline is still decent, NCO's are neglible, credit quality is very good, and the average LTV is 65%. FICO scores for originations and held-for-sales is over 700: solid "A" category. The company is earning over 2% on ROA and over 25% on ROE. BV and Tangible BV
increased by 20% and 25%, respectively, from year-ago levels.
I do not understand the bears case on this stock. Not only are credit quality and asset quality issues not present, but if one were concerned with them, it would seem that GPT would be a stock to run to. Trading at under 8X earnings, the stock is discounting nothing. You still have a takeout possibility (5% chance), an accretive merger possibility (40% chance) and continued earnings strength (55% chance) to boost the stock price.
If average LTV's of 65% combined with FICO scores of over 700 represent any major risk -- short of a 1989-91 real estate implosion -- I'd be happy to hear the bears case.
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The company is a prodigous generator of cash. The balance sheet is good, and as earnings hold up, should be strenghtened. The dividned is in line to be raised next year -- the payout ratio is at historical lows. The company actively buys back it's own stock and there has been modest net reductions over the years.
I would be the first to admit I have a sentimental soft-spot for GPT (my 1st conversion) but I look at a company which is expected to earn $5.50 this year and next and I have a hard time saying it's not a STRONG BUY at 8X earnings. Maybe I should rate it BUY, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (which I am sure will be countermanded by others!).
Still, this is a great way to play the mortgage market over the next 5 years. GPT has 1.3% of the national mortgage market and they want to get that up to 3% or so. Alot easier for them to grow market share and their asset base than a Fannie or Freddie. A takeover is always possible, and with a dividend discount model price of at least $65 as fair value, I would expect a premium if one occurs.
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2
said yes (of 2 -- 100.00%)
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Nov. 27 2002, 11:22 AM ET
Nearest price: 30.00 (05/21/13) |
by DAVID (profile)
(all of DAVID's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
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Nov. 25 2002, 8:04 PM ET
Nearest price: 30.00 (05/21/13) |
by stkinv00 (profile)
(all of stkinv00's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
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