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Worst case: dividend stays the same, asset values continue solid, fails to diversify loan business from concentration in New York City multi-family mortgages, continues to manage balance sheet to stay below $50 billion SIFI threshold thus showing uninspiring earnings growth. Question is: how bad is that? Stock printing new 52-week lows. With no bad news coming, what can go right? One, the feds are talking about lifting the SIFI threshold, which would eliminate a major strategic distraction. Two, they could streamline their business by selling Ohio, Arizona and Florida branches which have shown lackluster performance in the single-family mortgage market (sure, this would increase their concentration in NYC commercial RE market, but it would make NYCB more attractive as a takeover candidate). Three, they could throw in the towel and auction the whole thing off.
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