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PFS
Strong Buy 
 42.31%
11 members
Buy 
 15.38%
4 members
Hold 
 30.77%
8 members
Sell 
 11.54%
3 members
Strong Sell 
 0.00%
0 members
 
Average rating: 2.12 (Strong Buy) 1.00 - 5.00 (Strong Sell) Total: 26 members

Annual growth of PFS:

NOTE: areas highlighted in blue indicate that this user is sharing the highlighted information with their private group ONLY

Jan. 14 2007, 1:20 PM ET
Nearest price: 17.93 (01/16/07)
by abukini (profile)
(all of abukini's ratings)
rating:
Sell
(Previous rating: Sell,
on Jan. 13 2007, 08:51 AM ET)
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
 
Sep. 21 2005, 3:54 PM ET
Nearest price: 17.33 (09/21/05)
by marktwain (profile)
(all of marktwain's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
(Previous rating: Hold,
on May. 20 2003, 8:27 PM ET)
PFS @17.35 is a steal. Public 3 years in a couple of months. Open backback purchases in place. BUY BUY BUY

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

 
Feb. 29 2004, 12:20 PM ET
Nearest price: 19.65 (03/01/04)
by Conor (profile)
(all of Conor's ratings)
rating:
Hold
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Feb. 29 2004, 12:15 PM ET)
i've sold about half my shares and plan to hold the remaining longer term. still great presence in great area but still uncertain whether mgmt is up to the integration and resulting benefits.

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 2 -- 50.00%)

 
Feb. 27 2004, 8:39 PM ET
Nearest price: 19.70 (02/27/04)
by td (profile)
(all of td's ratings)
rating:
Hold
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on May. 2 2003, 12:11 PM ET)
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
 
Feb. 12 2004, 10:48 PM ET
Nearest price: 19.35 (02/12/04)
by stooz (profile)
(all of stooz's ratings)
rating:
Hold
Should be at least 50% upside from here over next 2 years (i.e., from $20 to $30) and possibly more if they get their costs under control. Reason for "hold" vs "buy" rating is management has not shown ability to execute and possible shakeout in thrift sector adds more risk than most thrift investors are accustomed to. Good news is managment from acquisition target seems to understand how to control costs.

The jury is still out.

Buy if you can hold at least 2-3 years. If buying, do so in small lots over time.

Stooz

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 3 -- 33.33%)

 
Feb. 4 2004, 5:12 PM ET
Nearest price: 18.30 (02/04/04)
by BEN (profile)
(all of BEN's ratings)
rating:
Sell
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jan. 18 2003, 8:25 PM ET)
Now you are a higher risk new thrift whom must show us you can execute. New acquisition of FSLA with completion in as late as summer wil give an higher interest rate view when completion is closer. Increase of risk in the risk-reward.

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 5 -- 20.00%)

 
Jan. 26 2004, 12:38 PM ET
Nearest price: 18.83 (01/26/04)
by sbguy (profile)
(all of sbguy's ratings)
rating:
Hold
mgt has "hit the #'s" for q4/'03 and did the right thing in announcing buyback and div increase. stock has also weathered the expected storm of 1 year anniv. selling. this proves they can walk and talk at the same time but not much more. the buy of FSLA at an atrocious price and the inability to do anything meaningful in terms of getting ahold of a horrible cost structure (274bp op exp ratio is/should be nothing short of an embarassment for a bank this size) are inexcusable. the frustrating thing for a holder such as i, is that the branch footprint is wonderful and the opportunity to show good earnings performance thru the "easy" mechanism of fixing their bloated costs, truely amounts to nothing more than "picking the low hangin' fruit." there is so much opportunity here that it should be one of the all time home runs. i need to see some basic blocking and tackling before i can up my rating.

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Currently: 
 6 said yes (of 6 -- 100.00%)

 
Dec. 2 2003, 10:23 AM ET
Nearest price: 21.36 (12/02/03)
by bankshot (profile)
(all of bankshot's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Dec. 2 2003, 10:21 AM ET)
The time is ripe...PFS wants to be 'HBCK-like'...enough water is under the bridge...this will creep...but a steady climb

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 3 -- 0.00%)

 
Sep. 3 2003, 09:32 AM ET
Nearest price: 20.62 (09/03/03)
by thriftinve (profile)
(all of thriftinve's ratings)
rating:
Buy
(Previous rating: Buy,
on Sep. 3 2003, 09:22 AM ET)
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
 
Jul. 18 2003, 10:11 PM ET
Nearest price: 18.55 (07/18/03)
by corvettekid (profile)
(all of corvettekid's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jan. 17 2003, 4:15 PM ET)
Q2 Update Provident is basically a supply-and-demand story at this point. To buy it based on short-term or intermediate-term fundamentals is specious. You have to like the story long-term...BUT, there is a case to be made for this stock going higher if bank/thrift stocks hold up. I could see this stock reaching the low-to-mid 20's based strictly on buying flows the next few quarters.

Having qualified my rating, I am going to tepidly hold it as STRONG BUY -- for now. I reserve the right to downgrade at higher prices, unless something comes along to underpin the fundamentals or justify a sudden spurt in tangible book value. Obviousley, improving interest rate conditions, business expansion, a good acquisition, or superb capital managment (dividend boosts quarterly + expedited buybacks) could also allow me to keep the rating as we move higher.

In short, lots has changed in 6 months -- but the rating hasn't. As Ahnold said in T2...."Stick Around....."

POST-IPO COMMENTS I am sticking with the STRONG BUY rating but that's based on a long-term holder. I can't say to aggressively buy the stock at 110-115% of book. You can buy some, but make sure it's capital you are comfortable committing long-term.

The institutions clearly want this stock and that could be one caveat to the upside. If Provident has identified a way to spend it's $600 MM warchest and really boost earnings -- and if the hedgies/funds know this -- then maybe they are willing to pay higher prices for what it will be worth 12-18 months down the road. Let's face it, there aren't too many glitzy alternatives. 1/17/03
____________________________________________________

I'm rating this STRONG BUY based on the IPO price of $10.00 per share. I think the chances of it breaking the IPO price are very slim, UNLESS we go to war with Iraq or something like that breaks (in which case, I would hope Sandler would postpone the IPO and not pull a Sound Federal).

I would buy the stock up to $15 for LONG TERM BUYERS but I need to see a quarter or two of earnings as well as where the thrift cycle goes to judge if this is a buy for the intermeidate term. The housing market rarely tanks during a presidential year so maybe the thrift cycle extends out. If so, this could be a great buy into 2005.

Lot's of if's and hedges here, I know. I will re-evaluate once public trading begins.

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 2 -- 50.00%)

 
Jul. 1 2003, 9:25 PM ET
Nearest price: 19.10 (07/01/03)
by fice (profile)
(all of fice's ratings)
rating:
Buy
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on May. 21 2003, 7:35 PM ET)
[ No comment ]

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

 
Jun. 21 2003, 4:14 PM ET
Nearest price: 18.58 (06/23/03)
by rwood46 (profile)
(all of rwood46's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
(Previous rating: Buy,
on Dec. 18 2002, 7:59 PM ET)
will open at book value of 13.50 and take a good 6 months to build an earnings stream to justify paying over book. The institutional clients will buy shares up to 14 if there is no deals for next 6 months to a year it could go to 125% of book due to the lack of new paper.I am a seller at 16 and buyer at under 13 .since PFS HAS RISEN ABOVE MY ORIGINAL TARGET OF 16 IT IS NOW 18.50 I WILL UP MY YEAR END TARGET TO 22 PER SHARE WITH A 40 TAKEOVER IN 3 YEARS.STILL TRADING BELOW PEER NJ 180% PRICE TO BOOK NOW AT 125% OF BOOK

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May. 20 2003, 4:24 PM ET
Nearest price: 18.67 (05/20/03)
by newguy9 (profile)
(all of newguy9's ratings)
rating:
Sell
(Previous rating: Hold,
on Feb. 5 2003, 8:42 PM ET)
SELL - sorry fellas, but it has risen almost 90 % from ipo, and over 20%
from Day 1. If HCBK, which is well run, has not been able to make
a sizable acquisition after almost 4 years since their IPO, why
would PFS all of a sudden find a bargain? Until PFS puts its
ipo funds to work, it remains very overcapitalized. There needs
to be more reason to buy/hold than that the ESOP has yet to buy
many of its shares !


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Feb. 18 2003, 12:15 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.14 (02/18/03)
by snlguy999 (profile)
(all of snlguy999's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jan. 13 2003, 08:12 AM ET)
Based on current fundementals and the support levels being shown in spite of market waekness, I would rate PFS a Strong Buy! My original estimate of an opening price of $14 on an IPO price of $10 was beaten by $1.5 fo $15.50. I still feel that by its one-year anniversery, PFS will have a positive track record and should move towards the $19 mark. While people can make light of PFS's pre-conversion operating results, this is actually quite typical as the thrift "cleans house" and tries to book every possible negative item in its books in hopes its post-IPO results can really shine. Further, PFS is getting cash at an extremely attractive time when it will be able to take advange of Fed rate increases in mid- to late-2003.

Long term, PFS should move to a price/book comparable or higher to other NY/NJ thrifts, which could send this one well into the 20's, or even 30+, depending on your investment timeframe. Since PFS is heavily involved in commercial-type assets, these assets will price up nicely when a recovery occurs, which will help its bottom line as its liabilities re-price. Of course, this is no way meant to guarantee future results and I urge everyone to do your own due diligence before purchasing.

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Feb. 13 2003, 5:42 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.03 (02/13/03)
by diehard5 (profile)
(all of diehard5's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
Simple story: supply and demand. There just aren't that many big conversions left...they're few and far between...limited supply of these, and there's no reason why other NJ/NY area conversions' success wouldn't be repeated here.

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Feb. 11 2003, 7:43 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.00 (02/11/03)
by cojones (profile)
(all of cojones's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
[ No comment ]

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Feb. 11 2003, 6:09 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.00 (02/11/03)
by go4 (profile)
(all of go4's ratings)
rating:
Hold
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Jan. 3 2003, 1:41 PM ET)
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
 
Jan. 29 2003, 04:59 AM ET
Nearest price: 15.57 (01/29/03)
by Cliff (profile)
(all of Cliff's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
While it sometimes pays to be careful when the concensus is so strongly favoring a stock, I have to say that I easily place my vote as the 13th Strong Buy. I do believe PFS can go the distance and anyone holding their breath for $14 to pick up more shares will probably be disappointed. I say 18 by yearend and >30 in 3 yrs. I feel very fortunate to have received all my shares and will add to it in the event it trades down to 14 or less.

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Jan. 20 2003, 4:04 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.57 (01/21/03)
by 1501 (profile)
(all of 1501's ratings)
rating:
Hold
PFS is a keeper at this point, but i would not rate it a buy. after all, at $16 it is already trading at 120% of book, and although this # is low relative to its seasoned peers, its PE is high at this price. long term PFS should hold its own, but i think its quick jump out of the gate might keep potential buyers away until it has come down a bit. and, of course, all the variables that make the overall market a dicey place to be make PFS vulnerable as well. disclosure - i did particpate in the offering and continue to hold the stock.

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

 
Jan. 17 2003, 11:12 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.85 (01/17/03)
by horn (profile)
(all of horn's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
Location, Management, Size

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Jan. 17 2003, 8:31 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.85 (01/17/03)
by Niagra (profile)
(all of Niagra's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
This rocket will settle in at 22-25 at the end of 1 1/4 elapsed years from its IPO. It will be valued like a commercial bank, and will get sold at 2-3X book when that happens.

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Jan. 17 2003, 07:29 AM ET
Nearest price: 15.85 (01/17/03)
by poppy5 (profile)
(all of poppy5's ratings)
rating:
Hold
(Previous rating: Buy,
on Jan. 11 2003, 7:00 PM ET)
Can I say "Strong Hold" near 15-15.50...
Great long-term play.
Safety, and liquidity.
Excellent location.
Put this one away...

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

 
Jan. 16 2003, 5:27 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.50 (01/16/03)
by uliana (profile)
(all of uliana's ratings)
rating:
Hold
Bought in the aftermarket at 15.06 . Consider it a long term holding. Expect to see 17-18 by year end. There is some downside risk that is due to the tone of the market and not the issue itself.

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Currently: 
 0 said yes (of 1 -- 0.00%)

 
Jan. 16 2003, 12:57 AM ET
Nearest price: 15.50 (01/16/03)
by tmonk2 (profile)
(all of tmonk2's ratings)
rating:
Buy
Buy and hold for long term. Should hit 25 in 2 years+. I expect they will buy a bank in year 1 which may depress price short term if they overpay but will perform well generally.

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Jan. 9 2003, 10:33 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.50 (01/16/03)
by readyfire (profile)
(all of readyfire's ratings)
rating:
Buy
Should see trading in or around 100% of book value in the short term. War, potential terrorist attacks, interest rate risk, how Provident uses proceeds (changes in lending strategies and/or acquisition of other banks) will all help determine whether this stock will be in the upper teens in a year from now or hovering in the $11-13 range.

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Jan. 9 2003, 5:00 PM ET
Nearest price: 15.50 (01/16/03)
by Allocate (profile)
(all of Allocate's ratings)
rating:
Strong Buy
No touting here, but my personal opinion is that PFS is a strong buy.

Besides, I was sick of seeing FNFG on my screen as I checked for new posts!

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Currently: 
 1 said yes (of 1 -- 100.00%)

 

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