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Oct. 15 2003, 10:09 AM ET
Nearest price: 24.62 (10/15/03) |
by newguy9 (profile)
(all of newguy9's ratings) |
rating:
Buy |
(Previous rating: Strong Buy,
on Dec. 26 2002, 9:15 PM ET)
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Updated Octover 15,2003
- I took a lot of slack for rating this one a strong buy in December.
Knowing that management isn't overly concerned about their stock price
from a day-day basis, it didn't discourage me seeing this thing at 17-18.
In the poll on Feb. 10, 2003, there
were 23 who thought PFS would outperform RSLN near-term ; only 2
thought RSLN would outperform. On a contrarian basis, that made me
feel ok. From here out, I still see RSLN doing pretty well. This may
be one of those companies where the wheels are turning behind the
scenes while it goes unnoticed to Wall Street.
Some of management's moves so far don't look
verry good. However, this bank has the potential
to grow earnings faster than GPT, ICBC, and yes,
even HCBK. Don't underestimate the potential of
this thrift once the economy turns. The past 3 years
of "mistakes" has pretty much been factored into the
price. Of the NY/NJ thrifts, it's the only one I see as
a STRONG BUY. (I see PFS and ICBC as Buy)
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Jul. 18 2003, 10:29 PM ET
Nearest price: 23.50 (07/18/03) |
by corvettekid (profile)
(all of corvettekid's ratings) |
rating:
Strong Buy |
(Previous rating: Strong Sell,
on Apr. 10 2003, 5:25 PM ET)
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July 2003 Update: Now you know why I never panned out as a hedge fund manager.
Lots of people say they're shocked when they're wrong, but this is really my most shocking short-term miss in thriftland since I started in 1993. I really didn't see this one coming. It's like Mariano Rivera blowing Game 7 in 2001...theoretically possible, but you never gave it good odds. Kudos to Mancino and the gang. I never though they'd get the consolidation wave going...guess they outsmarted alot of people. Including me.
I strongly favor holding/buying to get NYB's stock. Whatta bank!
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4/9/03 UPDATE: I would sell this stock and might even consider going short, naked or as part of a hedge. The high volume -- 3X or 4X normal volume -- has been going on for weeks now. The stock is either being bought back by mgmt (to prevent a collapse) or the volume is shorts or longs unloading. What is holding up the stock, I don't know. But given the recent balance sheet disclosures -- "Heads We Lose, Tails We Lose" -- I don't want to stay around and find out.
This bank once had a premium P/E. A triple in 15 months from the IPO was clearly too much too soon. I don't own RSLN but if I did I would dump every share. And I'm generally positive on thrifts overall, even willing to ride them down on any market-related weakness or "sell the thrifs" call by a misguided Wall Street sell-sider.
Sell RSLN. No reason to own it if you want exposure to quality NYC thrifts.
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This bank is a text-book reason for utilizing the MHC structure. RSLN's management has not distinguished themselves with a series of false-starts, mistimed acquisitions, and a lucrative but sleepy franchise.
Their once premium P/E has now been dissipated and the only remaining question is who they sell out to. NYCB is the best geographical fit, but a 20% premium from NYCB or AF or GPT would probably be welcome at this point.
I'm rating Roslyn HOLD unless you want to give it a speculative BUY rating based on an acquisition. Since the NYC thrift market has been dead for so long, I can't bet on that and will go with the HOLD rating.
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Nov. 20 2002, 2:52 PM ET
Nearest price: 17.79 (11/20/02) |
by BEN (profile)
(all of BEN's ratings) |
rating:
Buy |
(Previous rating: Buy,
on Nov. 20 2002, 12:06 PM ET)
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