Log on |  Join ($$)
BankInvestor.com Home BankInvestor.com HomeBankInvestor.com Home
Community IPO Research Stock Quotes BDCinvestor.com ValueForum.com
search discussion:      

These ratings are posted by site users; this content is not intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com

VPFG
Strong Buy 
 0.00%
0 members
Buy 
 0.00%
0 members
Hold 
 100.00%
2 members
Sell 
 0.00%
0 members
Strong Sell 
 0.00%
0 members
 
Average rating: 3.00 (Strong Buy) 1.00 - 5.00 (Strong Sell) Total: 2 members

Annual growth of VPFG:

NOTE: areas highlighted in blue indicate that this user is sharing the highlighted information with their private group ONLY

Jul. 19 2007, 3:51 PM ET
Nearest price: 11.37 (07/19/07)
by abukini (profile)
(all of abukini's ratings)
rating:
Hold
(Previous rating: Hold,
on Jan. 14 2007, 1:25 PM ET)
[ Comments shared with private group only ]
 
Jul. 18 2007, 3:08 PM ET
Nearest price: 11.18 (07/18/07)
by martinroad (profile)
(all of martinroad's ratings)
rating:
Hold
(Previous rating: Sell,
on Apr. 27 2007, 10:57 AM ET)
At $15.57, VPFG is getting closer to reasonable value. I wouldn't buy it yet, but would cover a short position. The best scenario longterm for VPFG is that it trades flat to down and they buyback a lot at a discount to fully converted book. They wouldn't be able to get an offering off right now at 115% of TBV, but might be able to in a year or two. If they use that as an eventual assumption, the current price is about 80% of fully converted book, not a bad level for them to start buying back stock...which will make it worth more on an eventual second.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ViewPoint the current price of $18.42, VPFG has gotten ahead of itself. Although I it was one of my largest holdings and management is shareholder friendly, it is my view that the near-term upside (1 year) is limited.

Viewpoint operates in a great market area, but has a less than attractive balance sheet: 38% of loans are auto, 9% of loans are home equity

Further, 19% of VPFG's loans are commercial real estate, up from 4% just two years ago (they do a lot of 10 year fixed rate loans). I haven't seen many banks grow a portfolio that fast in the past without some eventual credit problems.

The deposit base is decent, but a lot of non-interest income is related to NSF fees...which aren't as attractive as other revenue sources to most potential buyers (assuming that VPFG eventually 2nd steps and then sells 3 years later).

With a stock that is trading at 95% of fully converted book (assuming an eventual second step in which shares are offered to depositors at 115% of TBV), buybacks still make sense, but are nowhere as accretive as some former MHCs buybacks were (BRKL, HCBK, CSBC, SYNF, ABNJ, etc. all bought back a significant amount of stock at less than 75% of fully converted book). Further, if VPFG were to 2nd step, the would have about 30% equity/assets.

Following the conversion, when the stock was in the $15-$16 range, it was my view that VPFG would be worth $23-$24 per share in 2-3 years. However, my valuation assumed that VPFG would be able to buyback stock in the $16 range. Therefore, based on where it is trading today, my 2-3 year value drops to $20-$21/share. The only way it goes higher, is if the stock drops between now and then and they are able to buyback lower (could happen after 1 year is up and investors take advantage of long term tax gains -- of if asset quality turns south given the auto exposure and rapidly growing CRE portfolio -- a lot of the CRE is in Houston, which is outside VPFG's branch network which is in north Dallas).

Looking out six months, it is my view that VPFG is either dead money or comes down in price from where it is now.

Was this user's rating of 'VPFG' helpful to you? Thumbs Up -- this Stock Rating was helpful Thumbs Down -- this Stock Rating was not helpful
Currently: 
 10 said yes (of 10 -- 100.00%)

 

 • Click here to add your rating to VPFG!
 • More group stock ratings


Nothing in BankInvestor.com is intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by Bankinvestor.com. ©2019 info@bankinvestor.com About Us Contact Us How To Privacy Policy Terms Of Use
 image www.bankinvestor.com is the premier online investment club with a focus on and after-market bank investing opportunities. Site content powered in part by stock ticker and financial content provider, TickerTech.com. Be sure to look at our sister site for stock market message boards, trading tips and research, ValueForum.com.